AZ SandSharks

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Lone Peak High School, Soccer Field ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.7 for, 0.9 against · 1.92 expected points)

Common opponents: BVBIA Arizona — we 4–0, 0–3; they 1–0. El Paso Surf — we 0–2, 1–1; they 0–8. Utah Athletic — we 0–2; they 0–4. ALBION SC Utah — we 3–0; they 1–1, 2–1.

• They struggle to score
  Inter Utah SC average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 2 of 5.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Inter Utah SC concede 2.8/game; worst result 0–8 at El Paso Surf.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs El Paso Surf, 0–3 vs BVBIA Arizona, 0–2 vs Utah Athletic.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 56% / draw 24% / loss 20%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Away game
  Kickoff 08:00 AM at Lone Peak High School.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 08:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

Where we'd sit after the Inter Utah SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AZ SandSharks – Inter Utah SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 1%
4. 4th 2%
5. 5th 2%
6. 6th 4%
7. 7th 7%
8. 8th 8%
9. 9th 8%
10. 10th 9%
11. 11th 9%
12. 12th 10%
13. 13th 11%
14. 14th 10%
15. 15th 9%
16. 16th 5%
17. 17th 2%
18. 18th 1%
19. 19th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.35 PPG if we win out).