BVBIA Arizona
Elite Academy League · Southwest Desert U16 · 19 teams · BVBIA Arizona (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Regional Athletic Complex (RAC), Regional Athletic Complex ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.7 for, 2.5 against · 0.38 expected points)
| Season so far | BVBIA Arizona | Utah Athletic (North) |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-4 | 2-1-0 |
| Points per game | 0.60 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W L | W W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at AZ SandSharks | 3–1 at ALBION SC Utah |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs AZ SandSharks | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.09 | +0.74 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.12 | +0.14 |
Common opponents: ALBION SC Utah — we 1–5; they 3–1.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Utah Athletic (North) concede only 0.3/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 vs AZ SandSharks, 0–2 vs Utah Athletic, 0–1 vs Inter Utah SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 8%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Regional Athletic Complex (RAC).Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
ALBION SC Utah sit 6th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.60.A point moves us above ALBION SC Utah on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Utah Athletic (North) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BVBIA Arizona – Utah Athletic (North)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.50 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Draw 0.67 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th 1%
- 13th 1%
- 14th 2%
- 15th 3%
- 16th 8%
- 17th 13%
- 18th 32%
- 19th 40%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.37 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Athletic | 3.00 (+2.40) | 1st (2.51) | 54 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Utah Athletic (North) | 2.33 (+1.73) | 3rd (1.98) | 42 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 3 | El Paso Surf | 1.75 (+1.15) | 2nd (2.05) | 31 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 4 | Inter Utah SC | 1.40 (+0.80) | 17th (0.94) | 24 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 5 | AZ SandSharks | 1.14 (+0.54) | 16th (1.30) | 19 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | ALBION SC Utah | 0.67 (+0.07) | 19th (0.66) | A point next game |
How the results connect
11 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link BVBIA Arizona to Utah Athletic (North) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.20 · 3rd hardest of 19
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Utah Athletic (North) 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +4 |
Away Regional Athletic Complex (RAC) |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–2 | 0.38 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Inter Utah SC 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -10 |
Away Lone Peak High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Boulder County 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 0.69 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 AM |
Colorado Elevation FC 13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
Colorado Rush 14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Colorado Storm 16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Las Vegas 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
Villarreal Las Vegas Academy 19th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
El Paso Surf 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.26 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:30 PM |
BVBIA Las Vegas 11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Chaparral Highschool · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.64 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Las Vegas 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.64 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
AZ SandSharks 5th · 2-2-3 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–1 | 0.71 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 05:00 PM |
El Paso Surf 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home Winston Reynolds Manzanita Park Field |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.39 | 0.69 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
El Paso Surf 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.39 | 0.67 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Utah Athletic | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | +14 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.81 | +0.05 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Utah · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Utah Athletic (North) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 | 2.33 | WW | +0.14 | -0.09 | 77% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sun Oct 25 vs AZ SandSharks · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Athletic See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | El Paso Surf | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | -0.15 | -0.18 | 89% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Utah · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Inter Utah SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 7 | 1.40 | DLWWL | -0.03 | +0.27 | 0% | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AZ SandSharks · Sun Oct 25 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | AZ SandSharks | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 8 | 1.14 | LLDLW | +0.15 | +0.02 | 3% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Inter Utah SC · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sat Mar 6 vs Colorado Elevation FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Utah | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLWL | -0.15 | +0.51 | 0% | 17.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic (North) See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | BVBIA Arizona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 | 0.60 | LWLLL | -0.12 | +0.20 | 0% | 17.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sun Oct 25 at Inter Utah SC · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | ALBION SC Boulder County | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Jan 30 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | ALBION SC Denver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club · Sun Jan 24 at City SC NOCO · Sat Jan 30 at ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | ALBION SC Las Vegas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.20 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at BVBIA Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 vs BVBIA Las Vegas · Sun Dec 6 vs Villarreal Las Vegas Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | BVBIA Las Vegas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.10 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs Utah Athletic See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | City SC NOCO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Colorado United · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Denver · Sat Jan 30 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Colorado Elevation FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 23 vs Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Colorado Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Boulder County · Sat Jan 23 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Colorado Rush - COS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 30 at Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 31 at ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Colorado Storm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Jan 23 vs Colorado Rush - COS · Sun Jan 24 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Colorado United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs City SC NOCO · Sun Jan 24 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Elevation FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Denver Kickers Sports Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at ALBION SC Denver · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 30 at City SC NOCO See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Villarreal Las Vegas Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.19 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 6 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Jan 30 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.