Pacesetter SC Red
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · Pacesetter Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.7 against · 1.71 expected points)
| Season so far | Pacesetter SC Red | Internationals SC Pre- Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-3-1 | 5-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.88 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W W D | L W W W D |
| Biggest win | 5–1 at North FC Pre- West | 3–0 at GTFC Impact Girls Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Cleveland Force Pre- White | 0–2 at Cleveland Force Pre- White |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.82 | +0.56 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.32 | -0.03 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 1–1 at Internationals SC Pre- Blue (D)
Common opponents: Manta Pre — we 2–0, 4–2; they 2–0, 4–2. GTFC Impact Girls Pre — we 2–2; they 3–0, 3–4. North FC Pre- West — we 4–1, 5–1; they 3–2. Cleveland Force Pre- White — we 1–2, 1–1; they 0–2, 2–1.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 50% / draw 20% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Cleveland Force Pre- White sit 3rd on 1.89 PPG; we are on 1.88.A point moves us above Cleveland Force Pre- White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Internationals SC Pre- Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pacesetter SC Red – Internationals SC Pre- Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 |
| Draw 1.78 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 23%
- 2nd 17%
- 3rd 26%
- 4th 33%
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.10 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GTFC Impact Girls Pre | 2.00 (+0.12) | 2nd (1.93) | Win next game |
| 2 | Internationals SC Pre- Blue | 2.00 (+0.12) | 1st (1.96) | Win next game |
| 3 | Cleveland Force Pre- White | 1.89 (+0.01) | 3rd (1.83) | A point next game |
How the results connect
76 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Pacesetter SC Red to Internationals SC Pre- Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.58 · 2nd hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM |
Internationals SC Pre- Blue 2nd · 5-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home Pacesetter Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.71 | 1.86 | Swing game |
| Fri Oct 30 05:15 PM |
GTFC Impact Girls Pre 1st · 4-2-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Rossford Soccer Center Dome · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.40 | 1.81 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | GTFC Impact Girls Pre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 14 | 2.00 | WWDLW | -0.06 | -0.05 | 100% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Pacesetter SC Red · Sat Oct 31 at North FC Pre- West · Sun Nov 1 vs Cleveland Force Pre- White See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Internationals SC Pre- Blue | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 16 | 2.00 | DWWWL | -0.03 | -0.35 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pacesetter SC Red · Sun Oct 25 at North FC Pre- West See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cleveland Force Pre- White | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 17 | 1.89 | WWDWD | -0.19 | +0.60 | 100% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Girls Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pacesetter SC Red | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 15 | 1.88 | DWWLD | -0.32 | +0.58 | 100% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Internationals SC Pre- Blue · Fri Oct 30 at GTFC Impact Girls Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Manta Pre | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 6 | 0.60 | LLDLD | +0.19 | — | 0% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 6 | North FC Pre- West | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 1 | 0.13 | LLDLL | +0.28 | +0.58 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Internationals SC Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs GTFC Impact Girls Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.