GTFC Impact Girls Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · GTFC Impact (all teams)

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1st

4-2-1 record · 7 played

2.00 points per game

+7 goal diff · 17–10

WWDLWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.3

-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 30, 05:15 PM

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GTFC Impact Girls Pre
1st · 2.00 PPG

Pacesetter SC Red
4th · 1.88 PPG

Rossford Soccer Center Dome, Indoor Turf 9v9 (1) ↗ · turf

40% 21% 40%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.0 against · 1.40 expected points)

Season so far	GTFC Impact Girls Pre	Pacesetter SC Red
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	4-2-1	4-3-1
Points per game	2.00	1.88
Goals for / game	2.4	2.5
Goals against / game	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W L D W W	D L W W D
Biggest win	4–0 at Manta Pre	5–1 at North FC Pre- West
Worst loss	0–3 vs Internationals SC Pre- Blue	1–2 at Cleveland Force Pre- White
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.60	+0.82
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.06	-0.32

Already played this season: Fri Oct 2 2–2 at Pacesetter SC Red (D)

Common opponents: Manta Pre — we 4–0, 1–1; they 2–0, 4–2. Cleveland Force Pre- White — we 2–1; they 1–2, 1–1. North FC Pre- West — we 4–0; they 4–1, 5–1. Internationals SC Pre- Blue — we 0–3, 4–3; they 1–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Pacesetter SC Red score 2.5/game — well above the league's 1.7.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Internationals SC Pre- Blue.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 40%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pacesetter SC Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GTFC Impact Girls Pre – Pacesetter SC Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.88 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2
Win 2.13 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 1.88 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2
Loss 1.75 PPG	4th▼ down 3	4th▼ down 3	4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

33% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.3 average finish

1st 33%
2nd 27%
3rd 14%
4th 25%
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

70 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link GTFC Impact Girls Pre to Pacesetter SC Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

33 favour us

9 even

28 favour them

-0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 4th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Fri Oct 30 05:15 PM	Pacesetter SC Red 4th · 4-3-1 · GD +10	Home Rossford Soccer Center Dome · turf	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.40	1.92	Upside
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	North FC Pre- West 6th · 0-1-7 · GD -18	Away far trip T3 Lorain	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	3–0	2.48	1.99	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM	Cleveland Force Pre- White 3rd · 5-2-2 · GD +8	Home Rossford Soccer Center Dome · turf	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.40	1.93	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

GTFC Impact Girls Pre

2.00

WWDLW

-0.06

-0.05

100%

2.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Internationals SC Pre- Blue (2nd)	4–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Internationals SC Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–3
D	Fri Oct 2	at	Pacesetter SC Red (4th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	North FC Pre- West (6th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Manta Pre (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Manta Pre (5th)	4–0

Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Pacesetter SC Red · Sat Oct 31 at North FC Pre- West · Sun Nov 1 vs Cleveland Force Pre- White See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (4th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	North FC Pre- West (6th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Internationals SC Pre- Blue

2.00

DWWWL

-0.03

-0.35

100%

2.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (1st)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (1st)	3–0
W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Manta Pre (5th)	4–2
W	Fri Oct 2	at	Manta Pre (5th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (4th)	1–1
W	Fri Sep 11	vs	North FC Pre- West (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pacesetter SC Red · Sun Oct 25 at North FC Pre- West See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pacesetter SC Red (4th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	North FC Pre- West (6th)	2–0	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- White

1.89

WWDWD

-0.19

+0.60

100%

2.8

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (4th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (4th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Manta Pre (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	North FC Pre- West (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	North FC Pre- West (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Manta Pre (5th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Internationals SC Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Internationals SC Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Girls Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (1st)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pacesetter SC Red

+10

1.88

DWWLD

-0.32

+0.58

100%

2.7

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	North FC Pre- West (6th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	North FC Pre- West (6th)	4–1
D	Fri Oct 2	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (1st)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Internationals SC Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Manta Pre (5th)	4–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Manta Pre (5th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Internationals SC Pre- Blue · Fri Oct 30 at GTFC Impact Girls Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Internationals SC Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–1	50%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (1st)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manta Pre

-13

0.60

LLDLD

+0.19

—

5.0

North FC Pre- West

-18

0.13

LLDLL

+0.28

+0.58

6.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (4th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (4th)	1–4
D	Wed Oct 7	vs	Manta Pre (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Manta Pre (5th)	0–2
L	Fri Sep 11	at	Internationals SC Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Internationals SC Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs GTFC Impact Girls Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Internationals SC Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (1st)	0–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.