TableChase Clubs

Total Futbol Academy Elite

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 8 teams · Total Futbol Academy (OH) (all teams)

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2nd
3-1-0 record · 4 played
2.50 points per game
+7 goal diff · 9–2
WWWDlast 4
95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7
-1.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:40 PM

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Total Futbol Academy Elite
2nd · 2.50 PPG
vs
Ohio Elite SA Pre
1st · 2.60 PPG

TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC), TSC Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.8 against · 0.57 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol Academy EliteOhio Elite SA Pre
Position2nd1st
Record (W-D-L)3-1-04-1-0
Points per game2.502.60
Goals for / game2.36.4
Goals against / game0.50.4
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D W W WW D W W W
Biggest win6–1 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite I11–1 at Sporting Columbus
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.67+3.34
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.25-1.02

Common opponents: Cincinnati West Academy Elite I — we 6–1, 0–0; they 9–0. FC Pride Elite Pre — we 2–1; they 1–1. Mercury Pre- 1 — we 1–0; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Ohio Elite SA Pre score 6.4/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Ohio Elite SA Pre concede only 0.4/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Ohio Elite SA Pre sit 1st on 2.60 PPG; we are on 2.50.

    A win moves us above Ohio Elite SA Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Ohio Elite SA Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy Elite – Ohio Elite SA Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.00 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Win
2.60 PPG		 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Draw
2.20 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

7% finish 1st
95% top 4
5% below the top 4
2.7 average finish
  1. 1st 7%
  2. 2nd 41%
  3. 3rd 34%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Ohio Elite SA Pre 2.60 (+0.10) 1st (2.56) Win next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy Elite to Ohio Elite SA Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
12 favour them
-4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–1 6–1 0–9 1–0 0–7 0–0 1–2 3–1 0–4 0–2 1–1 3–0 1–11 3–0 Total Futbol Academ… 2nd FC Pride Elite Pre 4th Cincinnati West Aca… 8th Mercury Pre- 1 6th Indy Eleven Pre 5th Sporting Columbus 7th Ohio Elite SA Pre 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 19 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.61 · 3rd hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:40 PM		 Ohio Elite SA Pre
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +30		 Home
TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC)		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.57 2.11 Upside
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM		 Indy Eleven Pre
5th · 2-2-2 · GD -2		 Away far trip
Grand Park 		●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.75 2.05 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:40 AM		 Sporting Columbus
7th · 1-0-5 · GD -24		 Home
TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC)		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 3–0 2.77 2.16 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
02:40 PM		 Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre
3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +15		 Home
TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC)		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.09 2.02 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Ohio Elite SA Pre 5410 322+30 132.60 WWWDW -1.02 -0.02 100% 1.1
2 Total Futbol Academy Elite 4310 92+7 102.50 WWWD -1.25 +0.61 95% 2.7
3 Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre 4220 172+15 82.00 DWDW -1.48 +1.01 91% 3.1
4 FC Pride Elite Pre 6321 116+5 111.83 WDLWD +0.11 -0.45 99% 3.3
5 Indy Eleven Pre 6222 911-2 81.33 DLWWD +0.15 +0.06 13% 5.0
6 Mercury Pre- 1 5113 410-6 40.80 LDLLW +0.63 -0.36 2% 5.8
7 Sporting Columbus 6105 529-24 30.50 LLLWL +0.32 +2.00 0% 7.1
8 Cincinnati West Academy Elite I 6015 126-25 10.17 LLLLD +0.55 +0.01 0% 7.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.