TableChase Clubs

FC Pride Elite Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 8 teams · FC Pride (all teams)

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4th
3-2-1 record · 6 played
1.83 points per game
+5 goal diff · 11–6
WDLWDlast 5
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
+0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, TBD

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FC Pride Elite Pre
4th · 1.83 PPG
at
Cincinnati West Academy Elite I
8th · 0.17 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.1 for, 0.6 against · 2.69 expected points)

Season so farFC Pride Elite PreCincinnati West Academy Elite I
Position4th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-2-10-1-5
Points per game1.830.17
Goals for / game1.80.2
Goals against / game1.04.3
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless05
Form (recent first)D W L D WD L L L L
Biggest win3–0 vs Sporting Columbus—
Worst loss1–2 at Total Futbol Academy Elite0–9 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.57-2.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.11+0.55

Common opponents: Indy Eleven Pre — we 3–1, 1–1; they 0–2. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 1–1; they 0–9. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 1–2; they 1–6, 0–0. Sporting Columbus — we 3–0; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Cincinnati West Academy Elite I average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 5 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Cincinnati West Academy Elite I concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–9 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff TBD at TBD.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.83.

    A win moves us above Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cincinnati West Academy Elite I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Pride Elite Pre – Cincinnati West Academy Elite I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.71 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.57 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 17%
  3. 3rd 36%
  4. 4th 45%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Ohio Elite SA Pre 2.60 (+0.77) 1st (2.56) 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Total Futbol Academy Elite 2.50 (+0.67) 2nd (2.02) 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
3 Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre 2.00 (+0.17) 4th (1.81) Win next game

How the results connect

22 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link FC Pride Elite Pre to Cincinnati West Academy Elite I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+4.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 0–0 1–1 2–0 6–1 3–1 3–0 3–0 1–1 9–0 0–9 6–0 2–1 0–1 1–11 1–3 0–7 0–4 FC Pride Elite Pre 4th Total Futbol Academ… 2nd Indy Eleven Pre 5th Sporting Columbus 7th Ohio Elite SA Pre 1st Mercury Pre- 1 6th Lexington Sporting … 3rd Cincinnati West Aca… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 19 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.45 · 8th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 Cincinnati West Academy Elite I
8th · 0-1-5 · GD -25		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–0 2.69 1.96 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM		 Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre
3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +15		 Home
FC Pride Performance Center		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.04 1.84 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Ohio Elite SA Pre 5410 322+30 132.60 WWWDW -1.02 -0.02 100% 1.1
2 Total Futbol Academy Elite 4310 92+7 102.50 WWWD -1.25 +0.61 95% 2.7
3 Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre 4220 172+15 82.00 DWDW -1.48 +1.01 92% 3.1
4 FC Pride Elite Pre 6321 116+5 111.83 WDLWD +0.11 -0.45 98% 3.3
5 Indy Eleven Pre 6222 911-2 81.33 DLWWD +0.15 +0.06 13% 5.0
6 Mercury Pre- 1 5113 410-6 40.80 LDLLW +0.63 -0.36 2% 5.8
7 Sporting Columbus 6105 529-24 30.50 LLLWL +0.32 +2.00 0% 7.1
8 Cincinnati West Academy Elite I 6015 126-25 10.17 LLLLD +0.55 +0.01 0% 7.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.