Mercury Pre- 1
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 8 teams · Mercury (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:20 AM
Miami White Water Soccer Complex, Field 9 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.7 against · 2.41 expected points)
| Season so far | Mercury Pre- 1 | Cincinnati West Academy Elite I |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 4.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L D L | D L L L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Sporting Columbus | — |
| Worst loss | 0–7 at Ohio Elite SA Pre | 0–9 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.54 | -2.58 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.63 | +0.55 |
Common opponents: Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 0–7; they 0–9. Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre — we 0–0; they 0–6. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 0–1; they 1–6, 0–0. Sporting Columbus — we 3–0; they 0–3.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Cincinnati West Academy Elite I average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 5 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Cincinnati West Academy Elite I concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–9 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–7 at Ohio Elite SA Pre, 0–0 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre, 0–1 at Total Futbol Academy Elite.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:20 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Cincinnati West Academy Elite I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre- 1 – Cincinnati West Academy Elite I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.17 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 80%
- 7th 1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Elite SA Pre | 2.60 (+1.80) | 1st (2.56) | 17 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Total Futbol Academy Elite | 2.50 (+1.70) | 2nd (2.02) | 16 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre | 2.00 (+1.20) | 4th (1.81) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | FC Pride Elite Pre | 1.83 (+1.03) | 3rd (1.84) | 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Indy Eleven Pre | 1.33 (+0.53) | 5th (1.34) | 7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
How the results connect
18 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Mercury Pre- 1 to Cincinnati West Academy Elite I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.36 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 09:20 AM |
Cincinnati West Academy Elite I 8th · 0-1-5 · GD -25 |
Home Miami White Water Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
2–0 | 2.41 | 1.07 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
Indy Eleven Pre 5th · 2-2-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Grand Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.03 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 01:20 PM |
Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +15 |
Home Miami White Water Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.47 | 0.99 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Ohio Elite SA Pre | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 2 | +30 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWDW | -1.02 | -0.02 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Columbus See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Total Futbol Academy Elite | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -1.25 | +0.61 | 95% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Indy Eleven Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Columbus See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 8 | 2.00 | DWDW | -1.48 | +1.01 | 90% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Pride Elite Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | WDLWD | +0.11 | -0.45 | 98% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Indy Eleven Pre | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 | 1.33 | DLWWD | +0.15 | +0.06 | 14% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Nov 1 vs Mercury Pre- 1 See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Mercury Pre- 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLLW | +0.63 | -0.36 | 2% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite I · Sun Nov 1 at Indy Eleven Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting Columbus | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 29 | -24 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.32 | +2.00 | 0% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cincinnati West Academy Elite I | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 26 | -25 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLD | +0.55 | +0.01 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Mercury Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Pride Elite Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.