TableChase Clubs

Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 8 teams · Lexington Sporting (all teams)

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3rd
2-2-0 record · 4 played
2.00 points per game
+15 goal diff · 17–2
DWDWlast 4
91% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.1
-1.48 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:30 AM

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Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre
3rd · 2.00 PPG
at
Ohio Elite SA Pre
1st · 2.60 PPG

Ohio Elite Training Center, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.6 for, 3.2 against · 0.65 expected points)

Season so farLexington Sporting Club Academy PreOhio Elite SA Pre
Position3rd1st
Record (W-D-L)2-2-04-1-0
Points per game2.002.60
Goals for / game4.36.4
Goals against / game0.50.4
Clean sheets33
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W D W DW D W W W
Biggest win9–0 vs Sporting Columbus11–1 at Sporting Columbus
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.68+3.34
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.48-1.02

Common opponents: Mercury Pre- 1 — we 0–0; they 7–0. Sporting Columbus — we 9–0; they 11–1. Indy Eleven Pre — we 2–2; they 4–0. Cincinnati West Academy Elite I — we 6–0; they 9–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Ohio Elite SA Pre score 6.4/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Ohio Elite SA Pre concede only 0.4/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Mercury Pre- 1.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 17%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:30 AM at Ohio Elite Training Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Ohio Elite SA Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre – Ohio Elite SA Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.60 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Win
2.20 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
1.80 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
1.60 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we fall to at least 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
91% top 4
9% below the top 4
3.1 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 30%
  3. 3rd 29%
  4. 4th 28%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Ohio Elite SA Pre 2.60 (+0.60) 1st (2.56) 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Total Futbol Academy Elite 2.50 (+0.50) 2nd (2.02) 12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

16 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre to Ohio Elite SA Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
2 even
11 favour them
-2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
9–0 1–11 6–0 0–9 2–2 0–4 0–0 0–7 0–2 1–1 1–1 1–2 0–3 1–3 1–3 3–0 0–3 Lexington Sporting … 3rd Sporting Columbus 7th Cincinnati West Aca… 8th Indy Eleven Pre 5th Mercury Pre- 1 6th FC Pride Elite Pre 4th Ohio Elite SA Pre 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 19 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.01 · 2nd hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:30 AM		 Ohio Elite SA Pre
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +30		 Away far trip
Ohio Elite Training Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–3 0.65 1.73 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM		 FC Pride Elite Pre
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
FC Pride Performance Center		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–1 1.74 1.73 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:40 PM		 Total Futbol Academy Elite
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +7		 Away far trip
TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC)		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.68 1.72 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
01:20 PM		 Mercury Pre- 1
6th · 1-1-3 · GD -6		 Away far trip
Miami White Water Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–0 2.38 1.81 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Ohio Elite SA Pre 5410 322+30 132.60 WWWDW -1.02 -0.02 100% 1.1
2 Total Futbol Academy Elite 4310 92+7 102.50 WWWD -1.25 +0.61 95% 2.7
3 Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre 4220 172+15 82.00 DWDW -1.48 +1.01 91% 3.1
4 FC Pride Elite Pre 6321 116+5 111.83 WDLWD +0.11 -0.45 99% 3.3
5 Indy Eleven Pre 6222 911-2 81.33 DLWWD +0.15 +0.06 13% 5.0
6 Mercury Pre- 1 5113 410-6 40.80 LDLLW +0.63 -0.36 2% 5.8
7 Sporting Columbus 6105 529-24 30.50 LLLWL +0.32 +2.00 0% 7.1
8 Cincinnati West Academy Elite I 6015 126-25 10.17 LLLLD +0.55 +0.01 0% 7.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.