Cincinnati West Academy Elite I

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 8 teams · Cincinnati West (all teams)

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8th

0-1-5 record · 6 played

0.17 points per game

-25 goal diff · 1–26

LLLLDlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.9

+0.55 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:20 AM

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Cincinnati West Academy Elite I
8th · 0.17 PPG

Mercury Pre- 1
6th · 0.80 PPG

Miami White Water Soccer Complex, Field 9 ↗

9% 16% 75%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.7 for, 2.4 against · 0.43 expected points)

Season so far	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I	Mercury Pre- 1
Position	8th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	0-1-5	1-1-3
Points per game	0.17	0.80
Goals for / game	0.2	0.8
Goals against / game	4.3	2.0
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	5	3
Form (recent first)	D L L L L	W L L D L
Biggest win	—	3–0 vs Sporting Columbus
Worst loss	0–9 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre	0–7 at Ohio Elite SA Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.58	-0.54
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.55	+0.63

Common opponents: Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 1–6, 0–0; they 0–1. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 0–9; they 0–7. Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre — we 0–6; they 0–0. Sporting Columbus — we 0–3; they 3–0.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Mercury Pre- 1 average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 3 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–9 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre, 0–2 vs Indy Eleven Pre, 0–6 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre, 0–3 vs Sporting Columbus, 0–0 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 09:20 AM at Miami White Water Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:20 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Sporting Columbus sit 7th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.17.
A point moves us above Sporting Columbus on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mercury Pre- 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cincinnati West Academy Elite I – Mercury Pre- 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.14 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds
Win 0.57 PPG	7th▲ up 1	7th▲ up 1	8th— holds
Draw 0.29 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds
Loss 0.14 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

7.9 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th 1%
7th 13%
8th 87%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 0.88 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Ohio Elite SA Pre	2.60 (+2.43)	1st (2.56)	20 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Total Futbol Academy Elite	2.50 (+2.33)	2nd (2.02)	19 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre	2.00 (+1.83)	4th (1.81)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	FC Pride Elite Pre	1.83 (+1.66)	3rd (1.84)	14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Indy Eleven Pre	1.33 (+1.16)	5th (1.34)	10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	Mercury Pre- 1	0.80 (+0.63)	6th (0.99)	6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7	Sporting Columbus	0.50 (+0.33)	7th (0.40)	A point next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Cincinnati West Academy Elite I to Mercury Pre- 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

1 even

14 favour them

-3.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 5th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 09:20 AM	Mercury Pre- 1 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -6	Away Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.43	0.20	Upside
Sun Nov 1 TBD	FC Pride Elite Pre 4th · 3-2-1 · GD +5	Home	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.22	0.21	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Elite SA Pre

+30

2.60

WWWDW

-1.02

-0.02

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Sporting Columbus (7th)	11–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Indy Eleven Pre (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (8th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Columbus See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (3rd)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	9–0	100%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

2.50

WWWD

-1.25

+0.61

95%

2.7

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (8th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (8th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Indy Eleven Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Columbus See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Indy Eleven Pre (5th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (3rd)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre

+15

2.00

DWDW

-1.48

+1.01

91%

3.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (8th)	6–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (5th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	9–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	2–0	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre

1.83

WDLWD

+0.11

-0.45

99%

3.3

D	Thu Oct 22	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	2–1
W	Tue Sep 15	at	Indy Eleven Pre (5th)	3–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (8th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (3rd)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven Pre

-2

1.33

DLWWD

+0.15

+0.06

13%

5.0

D	Thu Oct 22	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (3rd)	2–2
L	Tue Sep 15	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Nov 1 vs Mercury Pre- 1 See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

-6

0.80

LDLLW

+0.63

-0.36

5.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (3rd)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite I · Sun Nov 1 at Indy Eleven Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (8th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Indy Eleven Pre (5th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (3rd)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Columbus

-24

0.50

LLLWL

+0.32

+2.00

7.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	0–3
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–11
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Indy Eleven Pre (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (3rd)	0–9

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–9	0%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati West Academy Elite I

-25

0.17

LLLLD

+0.55

+0.01

7.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (3rd)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (5th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Mercury Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Pride Elite Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (4th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.