NJ Crush FC Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU12 · 9 teams · NJ Crush FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM
Ramapo College, Womens Grass ↗ · grass
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.4 against · 2.34 expected points)
| Season so far | NJ Crush FC Pre | SUSA FC Pre- Northeast |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D W W | — |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Force FC Pre | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.54 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.11 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
SUSA FC Pre- Northeast average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Grass field
Venue listed as "Womens Grass" at Ramapo College.If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.
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What a win does
East Coast Surf Pre sit 1st on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.33.A win moves us above East Coast Surf Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SUSA FC Pre- Northeast game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NJ Crush FC Pre – SUSA FC Pre- Northeast) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.75 PPG |
5th▼ down 3 | 4th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 41%
- 2nd 42%
- 3rd 13%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Coast Surf Pre | 2.50 (+0.17) | 1st (2.27) | Win next game |
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.15 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM |
SUSA FC Pre- Northeast 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Ramapo College · grass |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.34 | 2.33 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
PSA North Pre 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -11 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
4–1 | 2.80 | 2.43 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM |
Manhattan SC Pre 4th · 2-1-0 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
College of Mt. St. Vincent |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 2.35 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 03:30 PM |
Quickstrike FC Pre 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Pace University · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.60 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Long Island Slammers Pre 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.43 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
East Coast Surf Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 2.14 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Long Island Slammers Pre 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.19 | 2.15 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
PDA SCP Pre 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -8 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.53 | 2.18 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
PSA North Pre 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -11 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.66 | 2.22 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Quickstrike FC Pre 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 2.19 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Manhattan SC Pre 4th · 2-1-0 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 2.19 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 12:30 PM |
Force FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Hudson Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–1 | 2.59 | 2.22 | Bank it |
| Sun May 23 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre- Northeast 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.08 | 2.21 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Coast Surf Pre | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -0.39 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Force FC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Manhattan SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Long Island Slammers Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NJ Crush FC Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 7 | 2.33 | WWD | -0.11 | -0.15 | 99% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast · Sun Nov 1 vs PSA North Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Manhattan SC Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Quickstrike FC Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 | 2.33 | WWD | -0.34 | +0.05 | 88% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs PSA North Pre · Sat Oct 31 at PDA SCP Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Manhattan SC Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.54 | +0.15 | 61% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs NJ Crush FC Pre · Sat Mar 6 vs Long Island Slammers Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Force FC Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.31 | +0.15 | 0% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Coast Surf Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PDA SCP Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Quickstrike FC Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | PDA SCP Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +0.46 | +0.05 | 1% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Quickstrike FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Force FC Pre · Fri Apr 2 vs East Coast Surf Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Long Island Slammers Pre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | L | — | +0.04 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast · Sat Oct 24 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at East Coast Surf Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SUSA FC Pre- Northeast | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Sep 26 at Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Nov 1 at NJ Crush FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Force FC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | PSA North Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.20 | +0.18 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at NJ Crush FC Pre · Sat Mar 27 vs Quickstrike FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.