Manhattan SC Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU12 · 9 teams · Manhattan SC (all teams)

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4th

2-1-0 record · 3 played

2.33 points per game

+2 goal diff · 6–4

WDWlast 3

61% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2

-0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 08:30 AM

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Manhattan SC Pre
4th · 2.33 PPG

East Coast Surf Pre
1st · 2.50 PPG

Randall's Island, Field 10 ↗

21% 19% 60%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.4 against · 0.81 expected points)

Season so far	Manhattan SC Pre	East Coast Surf Pre
Position	4th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-0	3-1-0
Points per game	2.33	2.50
Goals for / game	2.0	3.8
Goals against / game	1.3	0.8
Clean sheets	1	3
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W D W	D W W W
Biggest win	1–0 vs PDA SCP Pre	5–0 at PSA North Pre
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.19	+1.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.54	-0.39

Common opponents: PDA SCP Pre — we 1–0; they 4–0. PSA North Pre — we 4–3; they 3–0, 5–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
East Coast Surf Pre score 3.8/game — well above the league's 1.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
East Coast Surf Pre concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:30 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Quickstrike FC Pre sit 3rd on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.33.
A point moves us above Quickstrike FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East Coast Surf Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Manhattan SC Pre – East Coast Surf Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.75 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Win 2.50 PPG	1st▲ up 3	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Loss 1.75 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

61% top 4

39% below the top 4

4.2 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 5%
3rd 21%
4th 34%
5th 24%
6th 12%
7th 3%
8th <1%
9th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	East Coast Surf Pre	2.50 (+0.17)	1st (2.27)	Win next game
2	NJ Crush FC Pre	2.33 (+0.00)	2nd (2.21)	A point next game
3	Quickstrike FC Pre	2.33 (+0.00)	3rd (1.83)	A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Manhattan SC Pre to East Coast Surf Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

7 favour them

-2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 3rd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 08:30 AM	East Coast Surf Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12	Home Randall's Island	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–2	0.81	1.95	Upside
Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM	NJ Crush FC Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +10	Home College of Mt. St. Vincent	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.87	1.74	Upside
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Long Island Slammers Pre 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.77	1.74	Swing game
Sun Mar 7 TBD	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.65	1.73	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	East Coast Surf Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12	Away	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–2	0.60	1.59	Upside
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Force FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -7	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.23	1.66	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.37	1.63	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	PSA North Pre 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -11	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.06	1.67	Swing game
Sun May 2 TBD	PDA SCP Pre 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -8	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.93	1.69	Swing game
Sat May 8 TBD	NJ Crush FC Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +10	Away	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–2	0.63	1.61	Upside
Sun May 16 02:00 PM	Force FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -7	Away far trip Hudson Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.99	1.64	Swing game
Sat May 22 TBD	Quickstrike FC Pre 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +4	Home	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.23	1.61	Upside
Sun May 23 TBD	Long Island Slammers Pre 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	42%	1–1	1.49	1.60	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

East Coast Surf Pre

+12

2.50

WWWD

-0.39

-0.04

100%

1.7

D	Sat Oct 17	at	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	PSA North Pre (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	PSA North Pre (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Force FC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Manhattan SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Long Island Slammers Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Force FC Pre (5th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Force FC Pre (5th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	1–1	56%
·	Fri Mar 12	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	2–1	74%
·	Fri Apr 2	at	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	2–1	49%
·	Sat May 8	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat May 15	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NJ Crush FC Pre

+10

2.33

WWD

-0.11

-0.15

99%

1.8

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	3–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Force FC Pre (5th)	6–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast · Sun Nov 1 vs PSA North Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Manhattan SC Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	PSA North Pre (9th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat May 1	at	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun May 2	at	PSA North Pre (9th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat May 15	at	Force FC Pre (5th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun May 23	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Quickstrike FC Pre

2.33

WWD

-0.34

+0.05

88%

3.3

D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Force FC Pre (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs PSA North Pre · Sat Oct 31 at PDA SCP Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PSA North Pre (9th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Force FC Pre (5th)	2–0	65%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	PSA North Pre (9th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 8	at	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat May 15	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Sat May 22	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	2–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manhattan SC Pre

2.33

WDW

-0.54

+0.15

61%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	PSA North Pre (9th)	4–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs NJ Crush FC Pre · Sat Mar 6 vs Long Island Slammers Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Force FC Pre (5th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 1	at	PSA North Pre (9th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun May 2	at	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat May 8	at	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun May 16	at	Force FC Pre (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun May 23	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force FC Pre

-7

1.00

LWL

+0.31

+0.15

7.5

L	Sat Oct 3	at	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	PSA North Pre (9th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Coast Surf Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PDA SCP Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Quickstrike FC Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PSA North Pre (9th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat May 1	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun May 2	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 15	vs	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–3	7%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SCP Pre

-8

0.75

LLLW

+0.46

+0.05

7.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	PSA North Pre (9th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Quickstrike FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Force FC Pre · Fri Apr 2 vs East Coast Surf Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Force FC Pre (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Fri Apr 2	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force FC Pre (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat May 15	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun May 16	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun May 23	vs	PSA North Pre (9th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Long Island Slammers Pre

0.00

—

+0.04

—

Sat Sep 12

Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)

0–2

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast · Sat Oct 24 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at East Coast Surf Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Force FC Pre (5th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PSA North Pre (9th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Force FC Pre (5th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat May 8	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PSA North Pre (9th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–1	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC Pre- Northeast

0.00

—

+0.04

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Nov 1 at NJ Crush FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Force FC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Force FC Pre (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Fri Mar 12	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PSA North Pre (9th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Force FC Pre (5th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PSA North Pre (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun May 23	vs	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSA North Pre

-11

0.00

LLLLL

+0.20

+0.18

8.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Force FC Pre (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at NJ Crush FC Pre · Sat Mar 27 vs Quickstrike FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Force FC Pre (5th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun May 2	vs	NJ Crush FC Pre (2nd)	1–4	6%
·	Sat May 15	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (7th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun May 16	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (8th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun May 23	at	PDA SCP Pre (6th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.