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East Coast Surf Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU12 · 9 teams · East Coast Surf (all teams)

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1st
3-1-0 record · 4 played
2.50 points per game
+12 goal diff · 15–3
WWWDlast 4
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6
-0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:15 AM

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East Coast Surf Pre
1st · 2.50 PPG
at
Force FC Pre
5th · 1.00 PPG

Hudson Sports Complex, Field 1A ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.3 for, 0.9 against · 2.58 expected points)

Season so farEast Coast Surf PreForce FC Pre
Position1st5th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-01-0-2
Points per game2.501.00
Goals for / game3.80.7
Goals against / game0.83.0
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)D W W WL W L
Biggest win5–0 at PSA North Pre2–1 vs PSA North Pre
Worst loss—0–6 at NJ Crush FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.51-1.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.39+0.31

Common opponents: PSA North Pre — we 3–0, 5–0; they 2–1. NJ Crush FC Pre — we 3–3; they 0–6.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Force FC Pre average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Force FC Pre concede 3.0/game; worst result 0–6 at NJ Crush FC Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 83% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:15 AM at Hudson Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Force FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East Coast Surf Pre – Force FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.60 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Win
2.60 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Draw
2.20 PPG		 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 4
Loss
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

54% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.6 average finish
  1. 1st 54%
  2. 2nd 34%
  3. 3rd 10%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

5 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link East Coast Surf Pre to Force FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
0 favour them
+4.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 1–2 5–0 3–3 6–0 4–0 3–2 0–4 East Coast Surf Pre 1st PSA North Pre 9th NJ Crush FC Pre 2nd PDA SCP Pre 6th Force FC Pre 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 8th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:15 AM		 Force FC Pre
5th · 1-0-2 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Hudson Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–0 2.58 2.52 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
08:30 AM		 Manhattan SC Pre
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Randall's Island		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.99 2.43 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM		 Long Island Slammers Pre
7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Home
cedar creek park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.43 2.43 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- Northeast
8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 2–1 2.12 2.39 Swing game
Sun Feb 28
TBD		 Force FC Pre
5th · 1-0-2 · GD -7		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 3–0 2.73 2.43 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
TBD		 Quickstrike FC Pre
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +4		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 1–1 1.90 2.37 Swing game
Fri Mar 12
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- Northeast
8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–1 2.35 2.37 Bank it
Fri Apr 2
TBD		 PDA SCP Pre
6th · 1-0-3 · GD -8		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–0 2.53 2.39 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Manhattan SC Pre
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 2–1 2.24 2.37 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 NJ Crush FC Pre
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +10		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–1 1.65 2.32 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD		 Long Island Slammers Pre
7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 2–1 2.22 2.32 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD		 Quickstrike FC Pre
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +4		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 1–1 1.65 2.27 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 East Coast Surf Pre 4310 153+12 102.50 WWWD -0.39 -0.04 99% 1.6
2 NJ Crush FC Pre 3210 133+10 72.33 WWD -0.11 -0.15 99% 1.8
3 Quickstrike FC Pre 3210 51+4 72.33 WWD -0.34 +0.05 88% 3.3
4 Manhattan SC Pre 3210 64+2 72.33 WDW -0.54 +0.15 61% 4.3
5 Force FC Pre 3102 29-7 31.00 LWL +0.31 +0.15 1% 7.5
6 PDA SCP Pre 4103 311-8 30.75 LLLW +0.46 +0.05 1% 7.3
7 Long Island Slammers Pre 0000 00+0 00.00 L — +0.04 ——
8 SUSA FC Pre- Northeast 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.04 ——
9 PSA North Pre 5005 617-11 00.00 LLLLL +0.20 +0.18 0% 8.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.