SOLAR PRE- BATES

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU12 · 10 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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7th

1-2-3 record · 6 played

0.83 points per game

+0 goal diff · 7–7

WLLDDlast 5

7% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.6

+0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:30 PM

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SOLAR PRE- BATES
7th · 0.83 PPG

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren
6th · 1.29 PPG

Railroad Park , Field 9 ↗

26% 26% 48%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.0 for, 1.5 against · 1.03 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR PRE- BATES	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren
Position	7th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	1-2-3	3-0-4
Points per game	0.83	1.29
Goals for / game	1.2	1.6
Goals against / game	1.2	1.1
Clean sheets	1	3
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	D D L L W	W W L L W
Biggest win	3–0 vs Sting Pre- Prokof	4–0 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock
Worst loss	1–2 at DKSC Pre- Zaldivar	0–2 vs OK Energy FC Pre I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.02	+0.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.18	+0.17

Common opponents: DKSC Pre- Zaldivar — we 1–2; they 1–2. Sting Pre- Prokof — we 3–0; they 2–0. SOLAR PRE- ADAMES — we 1–2; they 1–2. OK Energy FC Pre I — we 0–1; they 0–2. Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock — we 1–1; they 4–0. Sting Pre- Girau — we 1–1; they 2–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at OK Energy FC Pre I.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 26%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 12:30 PM at Railroad Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- BATES – FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 0.86 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Win 1.14 PPG	6th▲ up 1	6th▲ up 1	7th— holds
Draw 0.86 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Loss 0.71 PPG	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

7% top 4

93% below the top 4

6.6 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th 7%
5th 9%
6th 14%
7th 58%
8th 9%
9th 3%
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.38 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	OK Energy FC Pre I	2.75 (+1.92)	1st (2.75)	17 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	DKSC Pre- Zaldivar	2.60 (+1.77)	2nd (2.35)	16 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	West Side Alliance Pre Gold	2.00 (+1.17)	3rd (1.80)	11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES	1.67 (+0.84)	4th (1.52)	9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock	1.33 (+0.50)	6th (1.32)	6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
6	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren	1.29 (+0.46)	5th (1.34)	6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection

How the results connect

27 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- BATES to FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us

5 even

12 favour them

-0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.69 · 8th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren 6th · 3-0-4 · GD +3	Away Railroad Park	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–1	1.03	0.86	Upside
Sat Oct 31 02:15 PM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon 10th · 0-2-4 · GD -17	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–0	2.28	1.04	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

OK Energy FC Pre I

+16

2.75

DWWWW

-0.30

—

100%

1.1

DKSC Pre- Zaldivar

2.60

WDWWW

-0.54

+0.12

99%

2.1

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting Pre- Prokof (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (10th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (6th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting Pre- Girau (9th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- BATES (7th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance Pre Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- ADAMES · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	West Side Alliance Pre Gold (3rd)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock (5th)	1–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance Pre Gold

2.00

WWDWL

-0.15

+0.15

88%

3.4

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock (5th)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (9th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (10th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- ADAMES · Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre- Zaldivar · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Pre- Prokof See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC Pre- Zaldivar (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting Pre- Prokof (8th)	1–0	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- ADAMES

1.67

DWWLW

-0.26

+0.53

57%

4.3

W	Thu Oct 22	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (10th)	6–0
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Pre- Prokof (8th)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	SOLAR PRE- BATES (7th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting Pre- Girau (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance Pre Gold · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Zaldivar See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	West Side Alliance Pre Gold (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- Zaldivar (2nd)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock

-1

1.33

WLWDD

-0.09

+0.08

19%

5.6

D	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- BATES (7th)	1–1
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (10th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	West Side Alliance Pre Gold (3rd)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (6th)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (9th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Prokof · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre- Zaldivar See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Prokof (8th)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC Pre- Zaldivar (2nd)	1–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren

1.29

WLLWW

+0.17

+0.02

30%

5.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting Pre- Prokof (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (9th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 11	at	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock (5th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	DKSC Pre- Zaldivar (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	West Side Alliance Pre Gold (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- BATES See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SOLAR PRE- BATES (7th)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- BATES

0.83

WLLDD

+0.18

-0.69

6.6

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (9th)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting Pre- Prokof (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre- Zaldivar (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (6th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (10th)	2–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Prokof

-7

0.67

DLLLW

+0.23

+0.04

8.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (4th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (6th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 11	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC Pre- Zaldivar (2nd)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (10th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	SOLAR PRE- BATES (7th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock · Sun Oct 25 at West Side Alliance Pre Gold See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock (5th)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	West Side Alliance Pre Gold (3rd)	0–1	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Girau

-7

0.43

DLLLD

+0.40

-1.76

8.7

D	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR PRE- BATES (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	West Side Alliance Pre Gold (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock (5th)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	DKSC Pre- Zaldivar (2nd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (10th)	1–0	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon

-17

0.33

DLLDL

+0.32

-0.27

9.7

L	Thu Oct 22	at	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (4th)	0–6
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Zaldivar (2nd)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting Pre- Prokof (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	West Side Alliance Pre Gold (3rd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Girau · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- BATES See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Girau (9th)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR PRE- BATES (7th)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.