TableChase Clubs

DKSC Pre- Zaldivar

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU12 · 10 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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2nd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+8 goal diff · 12–4
WDWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.1
-0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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DKSC Pre- Zaldivar
2nd · 2.60 PPG
vs

Railroad Park , Field 10 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.2 against · 1.97 expected points)

Season so farDKSC Pre- ZaldivarWest Side Alliance Pre Gold
Position2nd3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-1-03-1-1
Points per game2.602.00
Goals for / game2.41.8
Goals against / game0.81.4
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W D WL W D W W
Biggest win4–0 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon4–1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon
Worst loss—1–4 at Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.86+0.21
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.54-0.15

Common opponents: Sting Pre- Girau — we 2–2; they 2–1. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren — we 2–1; they 2–1. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon — we 4–0; they 4–1.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 59% / draw 20% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance Pre Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC Pre- Zaldivar – West Side Alliance Pre Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.17 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.1 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 84%
  3. 3rd 10%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 OK Energy FC Pre I 2.75 (+0.15) 1st (2.75) 9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

17 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC Pre- Zaldivar to West Side Alliance Pre Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
4 even
6 favour them
+0.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–2 4–0 1–4 2–2 1–2 0–4 0–0 2–1 0–1 1–1 2–0 1–1 1–2 0–2 0–2 2–0 0–1 4–1 DKSC Pre- Zaldivar 2nd FC Dallas Youth Pre… 6th FC Dallas Youth Pre… 10th Sting Pre- Girau 9th SOLAR PRE- BATES 7th Sting Pre- Prokof 8th OK Energy FC Pre I 1st Dallas Texans Pre- … 5th West Side Alliance … 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 3rd hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:30 PM
West Side Alliance Pre Gold
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +2
Home
Railroad Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.97 2.49 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
08:00 AM
SOLAR PRE- ADAMES
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Home
Railroad Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.93 2.41 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
12:30 PM
Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock
5th · 2-2-2 · GD -1
Away
Railroad Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–1 1.91 2.35 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 OK Energy FC Pre I 8710 182+16 222.75 DWWWW -0.30 — 100% 1.0
2 DKSC Pre- Zaldivar 5410 124+8 132.60 WDWWW -0.54 +0.12 100% 2.1
3 West Side Alliance Pre Gold 5311 97+2 102.00 WWDWL -0.15 +0.15 88% 3.4
4 SOLAR PRE- ADAMES 6312 118+3 101.67 DWWLW -0.26 +0.53 57% 4.3
5 Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock 6222 89-1 81.33 WLWDD -0.09 +0.08 19% 5.6
6 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren 7304 118+3 91.29 WLLWW +0.17 +0.02 29% 5.2
7 SOLAR PRE- BATES 6123 77+0 50.83 WLLDD +0.18 -0.69 7% 6.6
8 Sting Pre- Prokof 6114 310-7 40.67 DLLLW +0.23 +0.04 0% 8.4
9 Sting Pre- Girau 7034 512-7 30.43 DLLLD +0.40 -1.76 0% 8.7
10 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon 6024 320-17 20.33 DLLDL +0.32 -0.27 0% 9.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.