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FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU12 · 10 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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6th
3-0-4 record · 7 played
1.29 points per game
+3 goal diff · 11–8
WLLWWlast 5
30% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2
+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:30 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren
6th · 1.29 PPG
vs
SOLAR PRE- BATES
7th · 0.83 PPG

Railroad Park , Field 9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.0 against · 1.71 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Pre- FondrenSOLAR PRE- BATES
Position6th7th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-41-2-3
Points per game1.290.83
Goals for / game1.61.2
Goals against / game1.11.2
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W L L WD D L L W
Biggest win4–0 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock3–0 vs Sting Pre- Prokof
Worst loss0–2 vs OK Energy FC Pre I1–2 at DKSC Pre- Zaldivar
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.37+0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.17+0.18

Common opponents: DKSC Pre- Zaldivar — we 1–2; they 1–2. Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock — we 4–0; they 1–1. OK Energy FC Pre I — we 0–2; they 0–1. SOLAR PRE- ADAMES — we 1–2; they 1–2. Sting Pre- Girau — we 2–0; they 1–1. Sting Pre- Prokof — we 2–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs OK Energy FC Pre I.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 48% / draw 26% / loss 26%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock sit 5th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.29.

    A point moves us above Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR PRE- BATES game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren – SOLAR PRE- BATES) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.25 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.50 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
1.25 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
1.13 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
30% top 4
70% below the top 4
5.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 28%
  5. 5th 34%
  6. 6th 23%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 OK Energy FC Pre I 2.75 (+1.46) 1st (2.75) 13 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 DKSC Pre- Zaldivar 2.60 (+1.31) 2nd (2.35) 12 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 West Side Alliance Pre Gold 2.00 (+0.71) 3rd (1.80) 7 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 SOLAR PRE- ADAMES 1.67 (+0.38) 4th (1.52) 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock 1.33 (+0.04) 6th (1.32) A point next game

How the results connect

27 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren to SOLAR PRE- BATES through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
5 even
10 favour them
+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 2–1 1–2 2–1 2–0 0–3 0–2 1–0 2–0 1–1 4–0 1–1 0–3 1–2 0–0 2–1 0–2 0–1 1–1 FC Dallas Youth Pre… 6th SOLAR PRE- ADAMES 4th DKSC Pre- Zaldivar 2nd Sting Pre- Prokof 8th OK Energy FC Pre I 1st Sting Pre- Girau 9th Dallas Texans Pre- … 5th West Side Alliance … 3rd SOLAR PRE- BATES 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 6th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:30 PM		 SOLAR PRE- BATES
7th · 1-2-3 · GD +0		 Home
Railroad Park 		●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.71 1.34 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 OK Energy FC Pre I 8710 182+16 222.75 DWWWW -0.30 — 100% 1.1
2 DKSC Pre- Zaldivar 5410 124+8 132.60 WDWWW -0.54 +0.12 100% 2.1
3 West Side Alliance Pre Gold 5311 97+2 102.00 WWDWL -0.15 +0.15 87% 3.4
4 SOLAR PRE- ADAMES 6312 118+3 101.67 DWWLW -0.26 +0.53 57% 4.3
5 Dallas Texans Pre- Haylock 6222 89-1 81.33 WLWDD -0.09 +0.08 19% 5.6
6 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren 7304 118+3 91.29 WLLWW +0.17 +0.02 30% 5.2
7 SOLAR PRE- BATES 6123 77+0 50.83 WLLDD +0.18 -0.69 7% 6.6
8 Sting Pre- Prokof 6114 310-7 40.67 DLLLW +0.23 +0.04 0% 8.4
9 Sting Pre- Girau 7034 512-7 30.43 DLLLD +0.40 -1.76 0% 8.7
10 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon 6024 320-17 20.33 DLLDL +0.32 -0.27 0% 9.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.