Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU12 · 12 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:00 PM
Premier Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.4 against · 0.85 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK | Plymouth Soccer Club Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-7 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals against / game | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | W L L L |
| Biggest win | — | 4–0 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA |
| Worst loss | 2–6 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman | 0–5 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.87 | -0.46 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.18 | -0.36 |
Common opponents: Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue — we 1–2; they 2–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 vs Portage SC Pre- Green, 0–2 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL, 0–4 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Plymouth Soccer Club Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK – Plymouth Soccer Club Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.38 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
| Draw 0.13 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th 3%
- 11th 31%
- 12th 65%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.09 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.60) | 33 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.71) | 33 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 3.00 (+3.00) | 3rd (2.20) | 33 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue | 1.80 (+1.80) | 6th (1.45) | 20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Michigan Burn Pre White | 1.50 (+1.50) | 5th (1.54) | 17 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Michigan Hawks Pre | 1.33 (+1.33) | 7th (1.43) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 1.29 (+1.29) | 8th (1.22) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Plymouth Soccer Club Pre | 1.20 (+1.20) | 9th (1.20) | 14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 1.14 (+1.14) | 4th (1.57) | 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 10 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL | 0.60 (+0.60) | 10th (0.59) | 7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
How the results connect
6 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK to Plymouth Soccer Club Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.25 · 4th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM |
Plymouth Soccer Club Pre 8th · 2-0-3 · GD -2 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 03:30 PM |
Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +7 |
Away Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.18 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM |
Michigan Hawks Pre 6th · 1-1-1 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Jaycee Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.49 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 03:00 PM |
TKO Premier SC Pre 9th · 2-2-3 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.28 | 0.16 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 12 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.11 | +0.13 | 100% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Plymouth Soccer Club Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.22 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA · Sat May 1 at Michigan Hawks Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.20 | -0.13 | 94% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 17 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 | 1.80 | WLLWW | -0.82 | +0.38 | 22% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Michigan Burn Pre White · Fri Oct 23 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White · Sun Oct 25 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Michigan Burn Pre White | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWW | -1.30 | +0.30 | 31% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC Pre · Sun Oct 4 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Michigan Hawks Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | 1.33 | WD | +0.18 | -0.16 | 26% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Apr 11 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK · Sat May 1 vs Portage SC Pre- Green See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLLW | -0.31 | +0.62 | 4% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Apr 10 vs TKO Premier SC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Plymouth Soccer Club Pre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLW | -0.36 | -0.15 | 3% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 8 | 1.14 | DWLDL | +0.06 | -0.58 | 22% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 33 | -28 | 3 | 0.60 | LWL | -0.21 | -0.27 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Legends FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 28 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.18 | +0.25 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Apr 11 at Michigan Hawks Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.42 | -0.12 | 0% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL · Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Nov 7 at TKO Premier SC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.