Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU12 · 12 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:00 PM
Rick Hartker Soccer Fields, Field 8 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.8 for, 3.2 against · 0.75 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-2 | 4-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 5.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L L W | W W W |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA | 7–1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs Detroit City FC West Pre | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.30 | +1.57 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.82 | -1.11 |
Common opponents: Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA — we 2–1; they 7–1. TKO Premier SC Pre — we 1–2; they 3–2. Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK — we 2–1; they 6–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre score 5.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Detroit City FC West Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue – Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.50 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 6%
- 4th 17%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 18%
- 7th 16%
- 8th 18%
- 9th 8%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 3.00 (+1.20) | 2nd (2.60) | 21 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 3.00 (+1.20) | 1st (2.71) | 21 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 3.00 (+1.20) | 3rd (2.20) | 21 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
How the results connect
5 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue to Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.38 · 2nd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4 04:30 PM no score posted |
Michigan Burn Pre White 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
The Sports Academy |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–3 | 0.82 | 1.64 | Upside |
| Fri Oct 23 07:30 PM no score posted |
Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.38 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM |
Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13 |
Home Rick Hartker Soccer Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–3 | 0.75 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Fri Oct 30 06:00 PM |
Michigan Hawks Pre 6th · 1-1-1 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–2 | 1.21 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:30 AM |
Michigan Hawks PRE |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.38 | 1.45 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 12 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.11 | +0.13 | 100% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Plymouth Soccer Club Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.22 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA · Sat May 1 at Michigan Hawks Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.20 | -0.13 | 95% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 17 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 | 1.80 | WLLWW | -0.82 | +0.38 | 23% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Michigan Burn Pre White · Fri Oct 23 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White · Sun Oct 25 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Michigan Burn Pre White | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWW | -1.30 | +0.30 | 30% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC Pre · Sun Oct 4 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Michigan Hawks Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | 1.33 | WD | +0.18 | -0.16 | 25% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Apr 11 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK · Sat May 1 vs Portage SC Pre- Green See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLLW | -0.31 | +0.62 | 3% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Apr 10 vs TKO Premier SC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Plymouth Soccer Club Pre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLW | -0.36 | -0.15 | 3% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 8 | 1.14 | DWLDL | +0.06 | -0.58 | 21% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 33 | -28 | 3 | 0.60 | LWL | -0.21 | -0.27 | 0% | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Legends FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 28 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.18 | +0.25 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Apr 11 at Michigan Hawks Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.42 | -0.12 | 0% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL · Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Nov 7 at TKO Premier SC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.