Michigan Hawks Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU12 · 12 teams · Michigan Hawks (all teams)
Next game — Fri Oct 30, 06:00 PM
St. Joe's Sports Dome, St. Joe's Dome ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.0 against · 1.65 expected points)
| Season so far | Michigan Hawks Pre | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-1 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W | W L L W |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs Detroit City FC West Pre | 2–1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA |
| Worst loss | — | 0–3 vs Detroit City FC West Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.28 | -0.39 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.31 | -0.39 |
Common opponents: Detroit City FC West Pre — we 2–1; they 0–3. TKO Premier SC Pre — we 3–3; they 1–2.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 19% / loss 32%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
TKO Premier SC Pre sit 7th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above TKO Premier SC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Friday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Hawks Pre – Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.75 PPG |
4th▲ up 4 | 4th▲ up 4 | 4th▲ up 4 |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
4th▲ up 4 | 4th▲ up 4 | 4th▲ up 4 |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 22%
- 6th 17%
- 7th 17%
- 8th 17%
- 9th 8%
- 10th 2%
- 11th <1%
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.17 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 3.00 (+1.67) | 1st (2.70) | 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 3.00 (+1.67) | 2nd (2.47) | 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 3.00 (+1.67) | 3rd (2.25) | 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Michigan Burn Pre White | 1.50 (+0.17) | 5th (1.53) | A point next game |
| 5 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue | 1.50 (+0.17) | 8th (1.35) | A point next game |
| 6 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 1.50 (+0.17) | 7th (1.39) | A point next game |
| 7 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 1.33 (+0.00) | 4th (1.71) | A point next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Michigan Hawks Pre to Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.22 · 7th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 30 06:00 PM |
Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.65 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM |
Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK 12th · 0-0-6 · GD -21 |
Home Jaycee Park · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.41 | 1.61 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 12:00 PM |
Portage SC Pre- Green 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +12 |
Home Jaycee Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.59 | 1.44 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.17 | -0.23 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA · Sat May 1 at Michigan Hawks Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 9 | 3.00 | WW | -0.64 | -0.35 | 99% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.10 | -0.25 | 94% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 17 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Michigan Burn Pre White | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWW | -1.23 | +0.36 | 25% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC Pre · Sun Oct 4 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -0.39 | -0.10 | 13% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Michigan Burn Pre White · Fri Oct 23 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWLW | -0.28 | +0.46 | 9% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Nov 14 at Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Apr 10 vs TKO Premier SC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 8 | 1.33 | DWLDL | -0.08 | -0.50 | 42% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn Pre White · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Michigan Hawks Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | 1.33 | WD | +0.31 | -0.22 | 18% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Apr 11 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK · Sat May 1 vs Portage SC Pre- Green See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Plymouth Soccer Club Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.24 | -0.48 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 33 | -28 | 3 | 0.60 | LWL | -0.19 | -0.14 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Legends FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.16 | +0.19 | 0% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL · Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC Pre- Green See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 26 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.17 | +0.13 | 0% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.