TableChase Clubs

Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU12 · 12 teams · Nationals (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
Add schedule to calendar
3rd
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+7 goal diff · 8–1
WWlast 2
94% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7
-1.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

Open the match preview →

Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY
3rd · 3.00 PPG
vs
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL
10th · 0.60 PPG

Premier Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.87 expected points)

Season so farNationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAYLiverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL
Position3rd10th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-01-0-4
Points per game3.000.60
Goals for / game4.01.0
Goals against / game0.56.6
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W WL W L
Biggest win5–0 at Plymouth Soccer Club Pre2–0 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK
Worst loss—0–8 at TKO Premier SC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.20-2.65
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.10-0.19

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 1 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL concede 6.6/game; worst result 0–8 at TKO Premier SC Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • What a win does
    Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre sit 2nd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY – Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1
Win
3.00 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

19% finish 1st
94% top 4
6% below the top 4
2.7 average finish
  1. 1st 19%
  2. 2nd 25%
  3. 3rd 37%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Portage SC Pre- Green 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.70) Win next game
2 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.47) Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY to Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 2–5 8–2 Nationals SC Macomb… 3rd Liverpool FC-IA Mic… 11th Michigan Burn Pre W… 4th Liverpool FC-IA Mic… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.25 · 9th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 20
02:00 PM
no score posted		 Portage SC Pre- Green
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +12		 Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.98 2.33 Upside
Sat Oct 17
12:00 PM
no score posted		 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +7		 Away far trip
East Lansing Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–2 1.46 2.11 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
03:30 PM		 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -28		 Home
Premier Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.87 2.26 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
03:30 PM		 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -21		 Home
Premier Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 4–0 2.78 2.35 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
12:15 PM		 Michigan Burn Pre White
4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Away far trip
The Sports Academy		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–2 1.64 2.25 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Portage SC Pre- Green 4400 153+12 123.00 WWWW -0.17 -0.23 100% 1.5
2 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 3300 136+7 93.00 WW -0.64 -0.35 98% 2.2
3 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -1.10 -0.25 94% 2.7
4 Michigan Burn Pre White 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWW -1.23 +0.36 25% 5.7
5 Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue 4202 68-2 61.50 WLLW -0.39 -0.10 12% 6.7
6 Detroit City FC West Pre 6303 1014-4 91.50 WLWLW -0.28 +0.46 9% 6.7
7 TKO Premier SC Pre 6222 1711+6 81.33 DWLDL -0.08 -0.50 43% 5.0
8 Michigan Hawks Pre 3111 612-6 41.33 WD +0.31 -0.22 18% 6.1
9 Plymouth Soccer Club Pre 4103 610-4 30.75 LLLW -0.24 -0.48 0% 8.8
10 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL 5104 533-28 30.60 LWL -0.19 -0.14 0% 10.0
11 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA 6006 623-17 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.19 0% 11.3
12 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLACK 6006 526-21 00.00 LLLLL +0.17 +0.13 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.