TKO Premier SC Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU11 · 17 teams · TKO Premier SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.3 against · 0.80 expected points)
| Season so far | TKO Premier SC Pre | Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-6 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.78 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 1.2 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L D | L W W W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Plymouth Soccer Club Pre | 5–0 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at Legends FC Pre | 0–3 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.42 | +1.06 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.26 | +0.44 |
Common opponents: Detroit City FC West Pre — we 0–1; they 2–1. Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre — we 2–3; they 0–3. Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE — we 3–2; they 6–2. Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY — we 0–1; they 5–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–1 at Detroit City FC West Pre, 0–1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY, 0–2 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA, 0–3 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Michigan Burn Pre sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.78.A win moves us above Michigan Burn Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TKO Premier SC Pre – Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.70 PPG |
12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 | 14th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.70 PPG |
12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 | 14th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 12%
- 11th 22%
- 12th 26%
- 13th 26%
- 14th 11%
- 15th 2%
- 16th
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 2.60 (+1.82) | 1st (2.38) | 32 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 2.50 (+1.72) | 3rd (2.17) | 31 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Legends FC Pre | 2.29 (+1.51) | 2nd (2.26) | 28 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE | 2.25 (+1.47) | 5th (1.93) | 27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black | 2.25 (+1.47) | 7th (1.77) | 27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA | 2.00 (+1.22) | 8th (1.73) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 2.00 (+1.22) | 4th (2.05) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 1.83 (+1.05) | 6th (1.91) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 1.80 (+1.02) | 9th (1.68) | 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 10 | Michigan Burn Pre | 1.00 (+0.22) | 11th (1.03) | Win next game |
How the results connect
10 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link TKO Premier SC Pre to Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.37 · 13th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +7 |
Home Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM |
Michigan Hawks Pre 12th · 1-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.14 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 01:00 PM |
Portage SC Pre- Green 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +14 |
Home Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 11:00 AM |
Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Evolution Sportsplex Dome |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 12:00 PM |
Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue 14th · 1-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Rick Hartker Soccer Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.75 | 0.87 | Swing game |
| Sun May 23 12:00 PM |
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA 16th · 0-0-4 · GD -24 |
Home Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–0 | 2.61 | 0.98 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.05 | -0.28 | 92% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -0.08 | +0.24 | 72% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA · Sat Oct 24 at Detroit City FC West Pre · Fri Oct 30 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Legends FC Pre | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 5 | +21 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWLD | -0.13 | +0.04 | 86% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Apr 17 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sat Apr 24 vs Michigan Burn Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | +0.44 | +0.18 | 35% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.20 | -0.56 | 15% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Aug 28 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sat Sep 12 at Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWL | -0.50 | +1.89 | 9% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat May 8 at Legends FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 12 | 2.00 | WLLWW | +1.04 | -1.23 | 47% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Plymouth Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Detroit City FC West Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 11 | 1.83 | WWLDD | +0.73 | -0.14 | 36% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWWL | -0.35 | -0.01 | 8% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Aug 28 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Michigan Burn Pre | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 7 | 1.00 | DLLLW | -0.78 | +0.43 | 0% | 11.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Plymouth Soccer Club Pre · Sun Apr 11 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Apr 17 vs Detroit City FC West Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 | 0.78 | DLWLL | +0.26 | -0.37 | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Apr 17 at Michigan Hawks Pre · Sat May 8 vs Portage SC Pre- Green See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Michigan Hawks Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.11 | -1.93 | 0% | 10.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sat Apr 17 vs TKO Premier SC Pre · Fri May 14 at Plymouth Soccer Club Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWL | +0.17 | +0.48 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Fri Oct 30 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Apr 24 at Portage SC Pre- Green See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 24 | -18 | 3 | 0.50 | LWLLL | +0.97 | -0.22 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Michigan Hawks Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.77 | -0.72 | 1% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Apr 18 at Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 24 | -24 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.29 | +0.97 | 0% | 16.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sat May 1 at Portage SC Pre- Green See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Plymouth Soccer Club Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 25 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.12 | +0.15 | 0% | 16.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Burn Pre See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.