TableChase Clubs

Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU11 · 17 teams · Cap City Athletic 1847 (all teams)

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7th
4-0-2 record · 6 played
2.00 points per game
+9 goal diff · 19–10
WLLWWlast 5
50% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5
+1.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:30 PM

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Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre
7th · 2.00 PPG
at
Plymouth Soccer Club Pre
17th · 0.00 PPG

Lake Pointe Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–1 (expected goals 6.6 for, 1.0 against · 2.93 expected points)

Season so farCap City Athletic 1847 PrePlymouth Soccer Club Pre
Position7th17th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-20-0-3
Points per game2.000.00
Goals for / game3.20.0
Goals against / game1.78.3
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)W W L L WL L L
Biggest win6–0 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black—
Worst loss0–2 at Legends FC Pre0–14 vs Legends FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.37-3.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.04+1.12

Common opponents: TKO Premier SC Pre — we 3–2; they 0–4. Legends FC Pre — we 0–2; they 0–14. Portage SC Pre- Green — we 3–4; they 0–7.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Plymouth Soccer Club Pre average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 3 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Plymouth Soccer Club Pre concede 8.3/game; worst result 0–14 vs Legends FC Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Legends FC Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 6–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Plymouth Soccer Club Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Lake Pointe Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA sit 6th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Plymouth Soccer Club Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre – Plymouth Soccer Club Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.14 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1
Win
2.14 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1
Draw
1.86 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Loss
1.71 PPG		 9th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 6–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
50% top 4
50% below the top 4
4.5 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 11%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 15%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 18%
  7. 7th 11%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Portage SC Pre- Green 2.60 (+0.60) 1st (2.38) 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 2.50 (+0.50) 3rd (2.17) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
3 Legends FC Pre 2.29 (+0.29) 2nd (2.26) 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE 2.25 (+0.25) 5th (1.93) 6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection
5 Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black 2.25 (+0.25) 7th (1.77) 6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 3 for their projection
6 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA 2.00 (+0.00) 8th (1.73) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre to Plymouth Soccer Club Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
0 favour them
+8.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 4–0 3–4 7–0 0–2 14–0 1–2 4–1 4–2 2–0 Cap City Athletic 1… 7th TKO Premier SC Pre 11th Portage SC Pre- Gre… 1st Legends FC Pre 3rd Liverpool FC-IA Mic… 6th Plymouth Soccer Clu… 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 23

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.23 · 16th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM		 Plymouth Soccer Club Pre
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -25		 Away far trip
Lake Pointe Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–1 2.93 2.13 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
03:30 PM		 Detroit City FC West Pre
8th · 3-2-1 · GD +13		 Home
East Lansing Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–2 1.49 2.05 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Portage SC Pre- Green 5410 206+14 132.60 WWDWW -0.05 -0.28 92% 2.0
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 6501 165+11 152.50 WWWWW -0.08 +0.24 71% 3.5
3 Legends FC Pre 7511 265+21 162.29 WWWLD -0.13 +0.04 84% 2.9
4 Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE 4301 136+7 92.25 WWWL +0.44 +0.18 36% 5.5
5 Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black 4301 98+1 92.25 WLWW -0.20 -0.56 13% 7.0
6 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA 6402 217+14 122.00 WWLWL -0.50 +1.89 8% 7.3
7 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 6402 1910+9 122.00 WLLWW +1.04 -1.23 50% 4.5
8 Detroit City FC West Pre 6321 196+13 111.83 WWLDD +0.73 -0.14 37% 5.5
9 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 5302 108+2 91.80 WLWWL -0.35 -0.01 8% 7.7
10 Michigan Burn Pre 7214 1111+0 71.00 DLLLW -0.78 +0.43 0% 11.7
11 TKO Premier SC Pre 9216 1117-6 70.78 DLWLL +0.26 -0.37 0% 12.0
12 Michigan Hawks Pre 4103 45-1 30.75 LLLW -0.11 -1.93 0% 10.3
13 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 5104 720-13 30.60 LLWL +0.17 +0.48 0% 14.0
14 Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue 6105 624-18 30.50 LWLLL +0.97 -0.22 0% 13.7
15 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 1001 05-5 00.00 L +1.77 -0.72 1% 12.5
16 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA 4004 024-24 00.00 LLLL +0.29 +0.97 0% 16.6
17 Plymouth Soccer Club Pre 3003 025-25 00.00 LLL +1.12 +0.15 0% 16.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.