Michigan Burn Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU11 · 17 teams · Michigan Burn (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 8, 12:00 PM
Lake Pointe Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.1 against · 2.57 expected points)
| Season so far | Michigan Burn Pre | Plymouth Soccer Club Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 17th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-4 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 8.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L D | L L L |
| Biggest win | 7–0 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA | — |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA | 0–14 vs Legends FC Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.19 | -3.74 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.78 | +1.12 |
Common opponents: TKO Premier SC Pre — we 1–1; they 0–4.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Plymouth Soccer Club Pre average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 3 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Plymouth Soccer Club Pre concede 8.3/game; worst result 0–14 vs Legends FC Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA, 0–2 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Plymouth Soccer Club Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Lake Pointe Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Plymouth Soccer Club Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Burn Pre – Plymouth Soccer Club Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.25 PPG |
10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.25 PPG |
10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.88 PPG |
10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th 1%
- 9th 2%
- 10th 13%
- 11th 28%
- 12th 28%
- 13th 21%
- 14th 6%
- 15th 1%
- 16th <1%
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.92 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 2.60 (+1.60) | 1st (2.38) | 27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 2.50 (+1.50) | 3rd (2.17) | 26 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Legends FC Pre | 2.29 (+1.29) | 2nd (2.26) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE | 2.25 (+1.25) | 5th (1.93) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black | 2.25 (+1.25) | 7th (1.77) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 6 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA | 2.00 (+1.00) | 8th (1.73) | 19 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 7 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 2.00 (+1.00) | 4th (2.05) | 19 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 1.83 (+0.83) | 6th (1.91) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 9 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 1.80 (+0.80) | 9th (1.68) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
How the results connect
7 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Michigan Burn Pre to Plymouth Soccer Club Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.43 · 4th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
Plymouth Soccer Club Pre 17th · 0-0-3 · GD -25 |
Away far trip
Lake Pointe Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.57 | 1.20 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 03:00 PM |
Portage SC Pre- Green 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.46 | 1.11 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
Detroit City FC West Pre 8th · 3-2-1 · GD +13 |
Home The Sports Academy |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 1.08 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
Legends FC Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Legacy Center Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–2 | 0.37 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 01:00 PM |
Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home The Sports Academy |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 11:00 AM |
Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +7 |
Home The Sports Academy |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 1.03 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.05 | -0.28 | 94% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -0.08 | +0.24 | 73% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA · Sat Oct 24 at Detroit City FC West Pre · Fri Oct 30 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Legends FC Pre | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 5 | +21 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWLD | -0.13 | +0.04 | 85% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Apr 17 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sat Apr 24 vs Michigan Burn Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | +0.44 | +0.18 | 33% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.20 | -0.56 | 14% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Aug 28 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sat Sep 12 at Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWL | -0.50 | +1.89 | 9% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat May 8 at Legends FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 12 | 2.00 | WLLWW | +1.04 | -1.23 | 49% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Plymouth Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Detroit City FC West Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 11 | 1.83 | WWLDD | +0.73 | -0.14 | 35% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWWL | -0.35 | -0.01 | 8% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Aug 28 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Michigan Burn Pre | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 7 | 1.00 | DLLLW | -0.78 | +0.43 | 0% | 11.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Plymouth Soccer Club Pre · Sun Apr 11 at Portage SC Pre- Green · Sat Apr 17 vs Detroit City FC West Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 | 0.78 | DLWLL | +0.26 | -0.37 | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Apr 17 at Michigan Hawks Pre · Sat May 8 vs Portage SC Pre- Green See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Michigan Hawks Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.11 | -1.93 | 0% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sat Apr 17 vs TKO Premier SC Pre · Fri May 14 at Plymouth Soccer Club Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWL | +0.17 | +0.48 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Fri Oct 30 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Apr 24 at Portage SC Pre- Green See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 24 | -18 | 3 | 0.50 | LWLLL | +0.97 | -0.22 | 0% | 13.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Michigan Hawks Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.77 | -0.72 | 1% | 12.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue · Sun Apr 18 at Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 24 | -24 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.29 | +0.97 | 0% | 16.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sat May 1 at Portage SC Pre- Green See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Plymouth Soccer Club Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 25 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.12 | +0.15 | 0% | 16.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Burn Pre See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.