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Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU11 · 17 teams · Nationals (all teams)

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13th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-13 goal diff · 7–20
LLWLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.0
+0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE
13th · 0.60 PPG
at
Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue
14th · 0.50 PPG

Rick Hartker Soccer Fields, Field 8 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.4 against · 1.52 expected points)

Season so farNationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUENationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue
Position13th14th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-41-0-5
Points per game0.600.50
Goals for / game1.41.0
Goals against / game4.04.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L W L LL L L W L
Biggest win3–1 vs Michigan Burn Pre2–1 at Michigan Burn Pre
Worst loss2–6 at Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE1–8 at Detroit City FC West Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.21-1.62
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.30+1.05

Common opponents: Michigan Burn Pre — we 3–1; they 2–1. Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black — we 0–4; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 1 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue concede 4.0/game; worst result 1–8 at Detroit City FC West Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 45% / draw 18% / loss 37%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:30 AM at Rick Hartker Soccer Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Michigan Hawks Pre sit 12th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A point moves us above Michigan Hawks Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE – Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.67 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG		 11th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 2
Draw
0.67 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1
Loss
0.50 PPG		 14th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 18%
  14. 14th 42%
  15. 15th 31%
  16. 16th 2%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Portage SC Pre- Green 2.60 (+2.00) 1st (2.37) 18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 2.50 (+1.90) 3rd (2.17) 17 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black 2.40 (+1.80) 5th (1.91) 17 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Legends FC Pre 2.29 (+1.69) 2nd (2.24) 16 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE 2.25 (+1.65) 6th (1.91) 15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA 2.00 (+1.40) 8th (1.73) 13 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 2.00 (+1.40) 4th (2.05) 13 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Detroit City FC West Pre 1.83 (+1.23) 7th (1.89) 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 1.80 (+1.20) 9th (1.65) 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Michigan Burn Pre 1.00 (+0.40) 11th (1.01) Win next game
11 TKO Premier SC Pre 0.78 (+0.18) 12th (0.98) A point next game
12 Michigan Hawks Pre 0.75 (+0.15) 10th (1.28) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE to Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 1–2 0–4 2–1 2–3 0–3 4–0 3–1 1–1 0–2 6–1 1–4 3–1 0–3 2–6 2–1 8–1 0–1 Nationals SC Macomb… 13th Michigan Burn Pre 10th Nationals SC - Oakl… 3rd TKO Premier SC Pre 11th Nationals SC-CA Pre… 5th Nationals SC Oaklan… 2nd Liverpool FC-IA Mic… 6th Legends FC Pre 4th Detroit City FC Wes… 8th Nationals SC Genese… 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 23 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.49 · 4th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:30 AM		 Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue
14th · 1-0-5 · GD -18		 Away far trip
Rick Hartker Soccer Fields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.52 0.75 Swing game
Fri Oct 30
07:00 PM		 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +11		 Away
Premier Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–3 0.25 0.68 Upside
Sat Apr 24
04:00 PM		 Portage SC Pre- Green
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +14		 Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–5 0.16 0.62 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Portage SC Pre- Green 5410 206+14 132.60 WWDWW -0.05 -0.26 92% 2.1
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 6501 165+11 152.50 WWWWW -0.02 +0.20 71% 3.5
3 Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black 5401 158+7 122.40 WLWWW -1.00 -0.28 28% 5.8
4 Legends FC Pre 7511 265+21 162.29 WWWLD -0.13 +0.07 82% 3.0
5 Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE 4301 136+7 92.25 WWWL +0.44 +0.24 29% 5.9
6 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA 6402 217+14 122.00 WWLWL -0.54 +1.89 8% 7.2
7 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 6402 1910+9 122.00 WLLWW +1.11 -1.23 49% 4.6
8 Detroit City FC West Pre 6321 196+13 111.83 WWLDD +0.73 -0.06 34% 5.7
9 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 5302 108+2 91.80 WLWWL -0.41 +0.10 6% 7.9
10 Michigan Burn Pre 7214 1111+0 71.00 DLLLW -0.83 +0.51 0% 11.8
11 TKO Premier SC Pre 9216 1117-6 70.78 DLWLL +0.26 -0.34 0% 12.0
12 Michigan Hawks Pre 4103 45-1 30.75 LLLW -0.19 -1.92 0% 10.3
13 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 5104 720-13 30.60 LLWL +0.30 +0.49 0% 14.0
14 Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue 6105 624-18 30.50 LWLLL +1.05 -0.23 0% 13.6
15 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 1001 05-5 00.00 L +1.77 -0.47 1% 12.7
16 Plymouth Soccer Club Pre 3003 025-25 00.00 LLL +1.12 +0.28 0% 16.1
17 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA 5005 030-30 00.00 LLLLL +0.36 +1.17 0% 16.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.