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Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU11 · 17 teams · Nationals (all teams)

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5th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+7 goal diff · 13–6
WWWLlast 4
31% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.8
+0.49 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM

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Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE
5th · 2.25 PPG
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Portage SC Pre- Green
1st · 2.60 PPG

Portage Soccer Complex, Field 1N ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.8 against · 0.91 expected points)

Season so farNationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUEPortage SC Pre- Green
Position5th1st
Record (W-D-L)3-0-14-1-0
Points per game2.252.60
Goals for / game3.34.0
Goals against / game1.51.2
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W W WW W D W W
Biggest win5–0 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY7–0 at Plymouth Soccer Club Pre
Worst loss0–3 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.07+1.77
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.49-0.05

Common opponents: Detroit City FC West Pre — we 2–1; they 2–2. Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre — we 0–3; they 4–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Portage SC Pre- Green score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:30 PM at Portage Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC Pre sit 4th on 2.29 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above Legends FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Portage SC Pre- Green game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE – Portage SC Pre- Green) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.80 PPG		 8th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 4
Win
2.40 PPG		 2nd▲ up 3 1st▲ up 4 3rd▲ up 2
Draw
2.00 PPG		 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 4
Loss
1.80 PPG		 8th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
31% top 4
69% below the top 4
5.8 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 7%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Portage SC Pre- Green 2.60 (+0.35) 1st (2.37) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 2.50 (+0.25) 3rd (2.17) 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
3 Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black 2.40 (+0.15) 5th (1.91) Win next game
4 Legends FC Pre 2.29 (+0.04) 2nd (2.24) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE to Portage SC Pre- Green through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
-2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 2–2 0–3 3–4 1–1 1–2 0–2 Nationals SC-CA Pre… 5th Detroit City FC Wes… 8th Cap City Athletic 1… 7th Legends FC Pre 4th Portage SC Pre- Gre… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 23 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.24 · 6th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
12:30 PM
no score posted		 Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +7		 Home
Capital Sportsplex Lansing		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.75 2.15 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
02:30 PM		 Portage SC Pre- Green
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +14		 Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.91 1.94 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM		 TKO Premier SC Pre
12th · 2-1-6 · GD -6		 Away far trip
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.01 1.95 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
12:30 PM		 Legends FC Pre
4th · 5-1-1 · GD +21		 Home
Capital Sportsplex Lansing		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.97 1.83 Upside
Sat May 15
09:30 AM		 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +11		 Home
Capital Sportsplex Lansing		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.30 1.77 Upside
Sat May 15
11:00 AM		 Michigan Burn Pre
10th · 2-1-4 · GD +0		 Away far trip
The Sports Academy		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.89 1.78 Swing game
Sun May 16
10:30 AM		 Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue
14th · 1-0-6 · GD -19		 Away far trip
Rick Hartker Soccer Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.54 1.85 Bank it
Sun May 16
10:30 AM		 Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue
14th · 1-0-6 · GD -19		 Away far trip
Rick Hartker Soccer Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.54 1.91 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Portage SC Pre- Green 5410 206+14 132.60 WWDWW -0.05 -0.24 92% 2.0
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 6501 165+11 152.50 WWWWW -0.02 +0.23 69% 3.6
3 Nationals SC - Oakland PreECNL Black 5401 158+7 122.40 WLWWW -0.96 -0.28 28% 5.9
4 Legends FC Pre 7511 265+21 162.29 WWWLD -0.13 +0.07 83% 3.0
5 Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE 4301 136+7 92.25 WWWL +0.49 +0.24 31% 5.8
6 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 15/16 PreECNL GMA 6402 217+14 122.00 WWLWL -0.54 +1.89 8% 7.3
7 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 6402 1910+9 122.00 WLLWW +1.11 -1.23 50% 4.6
8 Detroit City FC West Pre 6321 196+13 111.83 WWLDD +0.74 -0.06 32% 5.7
9 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 5302 108+2 91.80 WLWWL -0.41 +0.10 6% 8.0
10 Michigan Burn Pre 7214 1111+0 71.00 DLLLW -0.80 +0.51 0% 11.8
11 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 6204 1022-12 61.00 LLWLW -0.12 +1.54 0% 13.3
12 TKO Premier SC Pre 9216 1117-6 70.78 DLWLL +0.28 -0.34 0% 12.1
13 Michigan Hawks Pre 4103 45-1 30.75 LLLW -0.20 -1.92 0% 10.3
14 Nationals SC Genesee Pre- Blue 7106 827-19 30.43 WLLLL +0.71 -0.11 0% 14.3
15 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 1001 05-5 00.00 L +1.77 -0.46 1% 12.7
16 Plymouth Soccer Club Pre 3003 025-25 00.00 LLL +1.11 +0.28 0% 16.1
17 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL BLA 5005 030-30 00.00 LLLLL +0.36 +1.17 0% 16.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.