OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Frontier GU11 · 10 teams · Oklahoma Energy FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:00 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.4 against · 2.29 expected points)
| Season so far | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre | Arkansas Comets FC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 3-0-4 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.29 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L L W W L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre | 5–2 at Sporting Springfield Pre |
| Worst loss | — | 0–4 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.38 | -0.14 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.08 | +0.33 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 4–0 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre (W)
Common opponents: West Side Alliance Pre- White — we 4–2; they 4–2. Sporting Springfield Pre — we 6–3; they 5–2. FC Tulsa Academy Pre — we 1–0; they 1–2.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (OK Energy FC Frontier Pre – Arkansas Comets FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 42%
- 2nd 33%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 7%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
20 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link OK Energy FC Frontier Pre to Arkansas Comets FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.22 · 8th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC Pre 6th · 3-0-4 · GD -2 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.29 | 2.88 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 06:00 PM |
FC Wichita Navy Pre 10th · 0-0-5 · GD -36 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 2.90 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 09:00 AM |
FC Wichita Red Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +15 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 2.70 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 10:00 AM |
Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 2.59 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 7th · 2-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.71 | 2.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 7th · 2-0-3 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.45 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 03:00 PM |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +19 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.68 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 09:00 AM |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre 5th · 5-1-3 · GD +16 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 11:00 AM |
West Side Alliance Pre- White 9th · 1-0-6 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 2.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM |
Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.39 | 2.27 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
FC Wichita Navy Pre 10th · 0-0-5 · GD -36 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.95 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
FC Wichita Red Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 2.24 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 10:30 AM |
Sporting Springfield Pre 8th · 2-0-7 · GD -24 |
Home Edmond Soccer Club |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
5–1 | 2.78 | 2.27 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.08 | -0.22 | 98% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Wichita Red Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Kansas City Surf Blue Pre | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.96 | +0.16 | 77% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Red Pre · Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Springfield Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Wichita Red Pre | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 | 2.29 | LWWDW | +0.85 | -0.73 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Oct 17 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Surf Blue Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 15 | +19 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLLW | -0.82 | +0.27 | 65% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance Pre- White · Sun Nov 15 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 16 | 1.78 | LDWLL | -0.75 | +0.46 | 51% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance Pre- White · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Arkansas Comets FC Pre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 | 1.29 | LWWLL | +0.33 | -0.11 | 1% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sat Oct 10 at FC Wichita Red Pre · Sat Oct 17 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | -0.08 | -0.07 | 9% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Wichita Red Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting Springfield Pre | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 41 | -24 | 6 | 0.67 | LWLLW | +0.71 | -0.31 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf Blue Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Wichita Red Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | West Side Alliance Pre- White | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 3 | 0.43 | LWLLL | +0.39 | +0.10 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Wichita Navy Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 37 | -36 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.21 | +0.14 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at West Side Alliance Pre- White · Sat Oct 10 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Oct 17 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.