FC Tulsa Academy Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Frontier GU11 · 10 teams · FC Tulsa Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, TBD
Venue TBD
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.3 against · 2.35 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Tulsa Academy Pre | West Side Alliance Pre- White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-3 | 1-0-6 |
| Points per game | 1.78 | 0.43 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.1 | 3.6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W D L | L L L W L |
| Biggest win | 7–0 at FC Wichita Navy Pre | 3–2 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White | 0–4 vs FC Wichita Red Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.11 | -1.13 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.75 | +0.39 |
Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC Pre — we 2–1; they 2–4. Sporting Springfield Pre — we 5–0, 3–1; they 2–5. FC Wichita Red Pre — we 0–2, 2–2; they 0–4. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White — we 0–3; they 3–2. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 0–1; they 2–4.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 at FC Wichita Red Pre, 0–3 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White, 0–1 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
West Side Alliance Pre- White have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II sit 4th on 1.88 PPG; we are on 1.78.A point moves us above FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance Pre- White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Tulsa Academy Pre – West Side Alliance Pre- White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.90 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.90 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.70 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.60 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 26%
- 5th 34%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 3%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.39 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre | 3.00 (+1.22) | 2nd (2.27) | 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | Kansas City Surf Blue Pre | 2.50 (+0.72) | 3rd (1.95) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 3 | FC Wichita Red Pre | 2.29 (+0.51) | 1st (2.31) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 4 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II | 1.88 (+0.10) | 4th (1.85) | A point next game |
How the results connect
28 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link FC Tulsa Academy Pre to West Side Alliance Pre- White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.46 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 TBD |
West Side Alliance Pre- White 9th · 1-0-6 · GD -14 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.35 | 1.84 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 11:30 AM |
Arkansas Comets FC Pre 6th · 3-0-4 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.84 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +19 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.29 | 1.80 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +19 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.60 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 06:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 7th · 2-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.77 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 09:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 1.73 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 11:20 AM |
Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home Scheels Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.59 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 09:00 AM |
Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home Scheels Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.59 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 01:30 PM |
West Side Alliance Pre- White 9th · 1-0-6 · GD -14 |
Home Scheels Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.55 | 1.76 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.08 | -0.22 | 98% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Wichita Red Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Kansas City Surf Blue Pre | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.96 | +0.16 | 75% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Red Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Springfield Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Wichita Red Pre | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 | 2.29 | LWWDW | +0.85 | -0.73 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Oct 17 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Surf Blue Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 15 | +19 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLLW | -0.82 | +0.27 | 66% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance Pre- White · Sun Nov 15 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 16 | 1.78 | LDWLL | -0.75 | +0.46 | 49% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance Pre- White · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Dec 12 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Arkansas Comets FC Pre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 | 1.29 | LWWLL | +0.33 | -0.11 | 1% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sat Oct 10 at FC Wichita Red Pre · Sat Oct 17 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | -0.08 | -0.07 | 11% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Wichita Red Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting Springfield Pre | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 41 | -24 | 6 | 0.67 | LWLLW | +0.71 | -0.31 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf Blue Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Wichita Red Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | West Side Alliance Pre- White | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 3 | 0.43 | LWLLL | +0.39 | +0.10 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Wichita Navy Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 37 | -36 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.21 | +0.14 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at West Side Alliance Pre- White · Sat Oct 10 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre · Sat Oct 17 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.