TableChase Clubs

FC Wichita Navy Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Frontier GU11 · 10 teams · FC Wichita (all teams)

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10th
0-0-5 record · 5 played
0.00 points per game
-36 goal diff · 1–37
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.0
+1.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, TBD

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FC Wichita Navy Pre
10th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Kansas City Surf Blue Pre
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.8 for, 5.3 against · 0.07 expected points)

Season so farFC Wichita Navy PreKansas City Surf Blue Pre
Position10th2nd
Record (W-D-L)0-0-55-0-1
Points per game0.002.50
Goals for / game0.23.0
Goals against / game7.41.0
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless40
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W L W W
Biggest win—7–0 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre
Worst loss0–11 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II2–4 vs Sporting Springfield Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-4.21+0.98
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.21-0.96

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 0–7 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre (L)

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Kansas City Surf Blue Pre concede only 1.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–7 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre, 0–7 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre, 0–11 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II, 0–7 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (3%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    West Side Alliance Pre- White sit 9th on 0.43 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above West Side Alliance Pre- White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kansas City Surf Blue Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wichita Navy Pre – Kansas City Surf Blue Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Win
0.50 PPG		 9th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Draw
0.17 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 99%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.17 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.27) 54 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 2.50 (+2.50) 3rd (1.95) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 2.29 (+2.29) 1st (2.31) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 1.88 (+1.88) 4th (1.85) 34 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
5 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 1.78 (+1.78) 5th (1.76) 33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 1.29 (+1.29) 7th (1.28) 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 1.20 (+1.20) 6th (1.45) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 Sporting Springfield Pre 0.67 (+0.67) 8th (0.77) 13 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
9 West Side Alliance Pre- White 0.43 (+0.43) 9th (0.69) A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link FC Wichita Navy Pre to Kansas City Surf Blue Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
17 favour them
-6.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–7 0–7 5–0 4–2 0–7 0–11 8–1 3–1 6–0 1–5 2–1 1–2 1–3 FC Wichita Navy Pre 10th FC Tulsa Academy Pre 5th FC Tulsa Academy Pr… 4th Sporting Springfiel… 8th Arkansas Comets FC … 6th Kansas City Surf Bl… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 23 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 4th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 13
01:30 PM
no score posted		 West Side Alliance Pre- White
9th · 1-0-6 · GD -14		 Away far trip
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.24 0.04 Upside
Sat Oct 10
TBD
no score posted		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre
6th · 3-0-4 · GD -2		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.19 0.06 Upside
Sat Oct 17
TBD
no score posted		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre
6th · 3-0-4 · GD -2		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.11 0.07 Upside
Sun Oct 25
TBD		 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.07 0.07 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM		 Sporting Springfield Pre
8th · 2-0-7 · GD -24		 Away far trip
Betty and Bobby Allison Sports Town		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–5 0.25 0.09 Upside
Sat Nov 21
TBD		 West Side Alliance Pre- White
9th · 1-0-6 · GD -14		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–4 0.39 0.11 Upside
Sat Dec 5
06:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +11		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.02 0.11 Upside
Sat Dec 5
10:30 AM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White
7th · 2-0-3 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.07 0.10 Upside
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 FC Wichita Red Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +15		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.01 0.10 Upside
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 FC Wichita Red Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +15		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.03 0.09 Upside
Sat Feb 6
02:00 PM		 Sporting Springfield Pre
8th · 2-0-7 · GD -24		 Home
Stryker Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 2–4 0.43 0.11 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White
7th · 2-0-3 · GD +3		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.12 0.11 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +11		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.04 0.11 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 5500 176+11 153.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.22 98% 1.9
2 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 6501 186+12 152.50 WWLWW -0.96 +0.16 77% 3.5
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 7511 227+15 162.29 LWWDW +0.85 -0.73 99% 1.7
4 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 8503 3415+19 151.88 WWLLW -0.82 +0.27 64% 4.0
5 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 9513 2610+16 161.78 LDWLL -0.75 +0.46 50% 4.4
6 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 7304 1416-2 91.29 LWWLL +0.33 -0.11 1% 6.6
7 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 5203 118+3 61.20 LLWWL -0.08 -0.07 10% 5.9
8 Sporting Springfield Pre 9207 1741-24 60.67 LWLLW +0.71 -0.31 0% 8.4
9 West Side Alliance Pre- White 7106 1125-14 30.43 LWLLL +0.39 +0.10 0% 8.6
10 FC Wichita Navy Pre 5005 137-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.21 +0.14 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.