Oregon Premier FC Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Far West GU12 · 8 teams · Oregon Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Buckman Field Park, Football - West ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.2 against · 2.00 expected points)
| Season so far | Oregon Premier FC Pre | Portland City United SC PRE |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-1 | 2-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | W D L W L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at FC Portland Pre | 5–0 vs United PDX Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I | 0–4 vs Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.30 | +0.09 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.34 | -0.49 |
Common opponents: Eastside Timbers Pre — we 2–1; they 1–2, 3–1. Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I — we 1–2; they 0–4. FC Portland Pre — we 6–0; they 1–1. United PDX Pre — we 4–0; they 5–0.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 60% / draw 20% / loss 20%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Buckman Field Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
-
What a win does
Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I sit 1st on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.40.A win moves us above Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Portland City United SC PRE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Premier FC Pre – Portland City United SC PRE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 16%
- 2nd 75%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I | 2.50 (+0.10) | 1st (2.45) | Win next game |
How the results connect
17 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Oregon Premier FC Pre to Portland City United SC PRE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 2.00 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM |
FC Portland Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -14 |
Home Hazelia |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
3–0 | 2.78 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
Oregon Surf PreECNL 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.71 | 2.31 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 11:30 AM |
Eugene Metro FC Pre 4th · 3-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Bob Keefer |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.13 | 2.29 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.01 | 2.16 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 09:00 AM |
Eastside Timbers Pre 6th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Home TBA |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 2.19 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 09:00 AM |
FC Portland Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.66 | 2.23 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 31 TBD |
United PDX Pre 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -17 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.75 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Oregon Surf PreECNL 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.71 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 13 10:30 AM |
Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.01 | 2.15 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Oregon Surf PreECNL 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.71 | 2.12 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 14 TBD |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 2.00 | 2.11 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 11:00 AM |
United PDX Pre 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -17 |
Home TBA |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.84 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
Eugene Metro FC Pre 4th · 3-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home TBA |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–1 | 2.36 | 2.16 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home TBA |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.23 | 2.17 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 03:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers Pre 6th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.23 | 2.17 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC Pre 4th · 3-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.13 | 2.17 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.28 | -0.30 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs United PDX Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Eugene Metro FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Eastside Timbers Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Oregon Premier FC Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.34 | -0.14 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portland City United SC PRE · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Portland Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Surf PreECNL See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Oregon Surf PreECNL | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.29 | +0.00 | 93% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Portland City United SC PRE · Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside Timbers Pre · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Eugene Metro FC Pre | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWL | +0.16 | -0.07 | 54% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Portland Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I · Sat Nov 7 at FC Portland Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Portland City United SC PRE | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 | 1.40 | LWLDW | -0.49 | +0.10 | 48% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Portland Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Eastside Timbers Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | LWWLL | -0.33 | +0.19 | 6% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sun Nov 8 at United PDX Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | FC Portland Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLDL | +0.68 | +0.05 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eugene Metro FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Oregon Premier FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | United PDX Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 19 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.60 | +0.13 | 0% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sun Nov 8 vs Eastside Timbers Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.83 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.