TableChase Clubs

Oregon Premier FC Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Far West GU12 · 8 teams · Oregon Premier FC (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+11 goal diff · 14–3
WLWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.9
-0.34 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Oregon Premier FC Pre
2nd · 2.40 PPG
at

Buckman Field Park, Football - West ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.2 against · 2.00 expected points)

Season so farOregon Premier FC PrePortland City United SC PRE
Position2nd5th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-12-1-2
Points per game2.401.40
Goals for / game2.82.0
Goals against / game0.61.6
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W L WW D L W L
Biggest win6–0 at FC Portland Pre5–0 vs United PDX Pre
Worst loss1–2 vs Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I0–4 vs Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.30+0.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.34-0.49

Common opponents: Eastside Timbers Pre — we 2–1; they 1–2, 3–1. Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I — we 1–2; they 0–4. FC Portland Pre — we 6–0; they 1–1. United PDX Pre — we 4–0; they 5–0.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 60% / draw 20% / loss 20%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Buckman Field Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I sit 1st on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.40.

    A win moves us above Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Portland City United SC PRE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Premier FC Pre – Portland City United SC PRE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.00 PPG
2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

16% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.9 average finish
  1. 1st 16%
  2. 2nd 75%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I 2.50 (+0.10) 1st (2.45) Win next game

How the results connect

17 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Oregon Premier FC Pre to Portland City United SC PRE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
+2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 0–5 2–1 1–3 2–1 1–2 4–0 6–0 1–1 1–2 1–2 1–9 1–0 1–0 3–0 Oregon Premier FC P… 2nd United PDX Pre 8th Eastside Timbers Pre 6th Capital FC Pre- G14… 1st FC Portland Pre 7th Oregon Surf PreECNL 3rd Portland City Unite… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 7th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Portland City United SC PRE
5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.00 2.33 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:30 AM
FC Portland Pre
7th · 1-1-3 · GD -14
Home
Hazelia
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.78 2.40 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
TBD
Oregon Surf PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.71 2.31 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
11:30 AM
Eugene Metro FC Pre
4th · 3-0-3 · GD -1
Away far trip
Bob Keefer
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 2.29 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM
Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +19
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.01 2.16 Upside
Sat Jan 23
09:00 AM
Eastside Timbers Pre
6th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Home
TBA
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.43 2.19 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
FC Portland Pre
7th · 1-1-3 · GD -14
Away far trip
Liberty High School
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.66 2.23 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
TBD
United PDX Pre
8th · 0-0-5 · GD -17
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.75 2.27 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
TBD
Oregon Surf PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.71 2.23 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
10:30 AM
Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +19
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.01 2.15 Upside
Sat Feb 13
TBD
Oregon Surf PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.71 2.12 Swing game
Sun Feb 14
TBD
Portland City United SC PRE
5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.00 2.11 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
11:00 AM
United PDX Pre
8th · 0-0-5 · GD -17
Home
TBA
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.84 2.15 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
11:00 AM
Eugene Metro FC Pre
4th · 3-0-3 · GD -1
Home
TBA
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–1 2.36 2.16 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM
Portland City United SC PRE
5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2
Home
TBA
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.23 2.17 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
03:00 PM
Eastside Timbers Pre
6th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–0 2.23 2.17 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Eugene Metro FC Pre
4th · 3-0-3 · GD -1
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 2.17 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I 6501 234+19 152.50 WWWWL -0.28 -0.30 100% 1.2
2 Oregon Premier FC Pre 5401 143+11 122.40 WLWWW -0.34 -0.14 100% 1.9
3 Oregon Surf PreECNL 6402 107+3 122.00 WWLWW +0.29 +0.00 93% 3.2
4 Eugene Metro FC Pre 6303 1213-1 91.50 LWLWL +0.16 -0.07 54% 4.5
5 Portland City United SC PRE 5212 108+2 71.40 LWLDW -0.49 +0.10 48% 4.5
6 Eastside Timbers Pre 6204 811-3 61.00 LWWLL -0.33 +0.19 6% 5.9
7 FC Portland Pre 5113 418-14 40.80 WLLDL +0.68 +0.05 0% 7.0
8 United PDX Pre 5005 219-17 00.00 LLLLL +0.60 +0.13 0% 7.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.83 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.