Eugene Metro FC Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Far West GU12 · 8 teams · Eugene Metro FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM
Lane Community College, Track Field ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.4 against · 2.37 expected points)
| Season so far | Eugene Metro FC Pre | FC Portland Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-3 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W L | L D L L W |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs United PDX Pre | 2–1 vs Eastside Timbers Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I | 1–9 at Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.08 | -1.52 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.16 | +0.68 |
Common opponents: Oregon Surf PreECNL — we 4–2, 0–1, 1–4; they 0–1. Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I — we 0–4; they 1–9. Eastside Timbers Pre — we 2–1; they 2–1.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
FC Portland Pre average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 2 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
FC Portland Pre concede 3.6/game; worst result 1–9 at Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Oregon Surf PreECNL, 0–4 at Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Portland Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eugene Metro FC Pre – FC Portland Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.71 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.71 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.43 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.29 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 12%
- 4th 40%
- 5th 36%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I | 2.50 (+1.00) | 1st (2.45) | 44 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
| 2 | Oregon Premier FC Pre | 2.40 (+0.90) | 2nd (2.17) | 42 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 3 | Oregon Surf PreECNL | 2.00 (+0.50) | 3rd (1.74) | 33 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
How the results connect
21 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Eugene Metro FC Pre to FC Portland Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.07 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM |
FC Portland Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -14 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
3–1 | 2.37 | 1.62 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM |
Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +19 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.47 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
FC Portland Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.12 | 1.55 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:30 AM |
Oregon Premier FC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home Bob Keefer |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.69 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers Pre 6th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
United PDX Pre 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -17 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.33 | 1.51 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 13 01:00 PM |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–1 | 1.45 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 05:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers Pre 6th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
FC Portland Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -14 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
3–1 | 2.37 | 1.56 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
Oregon Premier FC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
TBA |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.49 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
United PDX Pre 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -17 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.53 | 1.55 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 10:30 AM |
Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.31 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.69 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 PM |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 1.43 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.28 | -0.30 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs United PDX Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Eugene Metro FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Eastside Timbers Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Oregon Premier FC Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.34 | -0.14 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portland City United SC PRE · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Portland Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Surf PreECNL See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Oregon Surf PreECNL | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.29 | +0.00 | 94% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Portland City United SC PRE · Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside Timbers Pre · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Eugene Metro FC Pre | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWL | +0.16 | -0.07 | 53% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Portland Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I · Sat Nov 7 at FC Portland Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Portland City United SC PRE | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 | 1.40 | LWLDW | -0.49 | +0.10 | 48% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Portland Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Eastside Timbers Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | LWWLL | -0.33 | +0.19 | 6% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sun Nov 8 at United PDX Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Portland Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLDL | +0.68 | +0.05 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eugene Metro FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Oregon Premier FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | United PDX Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 19 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.60 | +0.13 | 0% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sun Nov 8 vs Eastside Timbers Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.83 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.