Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Far West GU12 · 8 teams · Capital FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:30 PM
CFC Pioneer Sportspark, ED DAVISON 1 WEST 9V9 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.1 for, 0.6 against · 2.93 expected points)
| Season so far | Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I | United PDX Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-1 | 0-0-5 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 9–1 vs FC Portland Pre | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Oregon Surf PreECNL | 0–5 at Portland City United SC PRE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.95 | -1.87 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.28 | +0.60 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 3–0 at United PDX Pre (W)
Common opponents: Portland City United SC PRE — we 4–0; they 0–5. Oregon Premier FC Pre — we 2–1; they 0–4. Eugene Metro FC Pre — we 4–0; they 1–5.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
United PDX Pre average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 3 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
United PDX Pre concede 3.8/game; worst result 0–5 at Portland City United SC PRE.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 5–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
United PDX Pre have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the United PDX Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I – United PDX Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.57 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.57 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.29 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.14 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 83%
- 2nd 17%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
15 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I to United PDX Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.30 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 04:30 PM |
United PDX Pre 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -17 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.93 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM |
Eugene Metro FC Pre 4th · 3-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Lane Community College |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.40 | 2.54 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers Pre 6th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.47 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Oregon Premier FC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.77 | 2.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 23 10:30 AM |
FC Portland Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -14 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.90 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 09:00 AM |
Oregon Surf PreECNL 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.20 | 2.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.27 | 2.46 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 13 10:30 AM |
Oregon Premier FC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.77 | 2.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 01:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers Pre 6th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.47 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 21 TBD |
Oregon Surf PreECNL 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 2.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.48 | 2.39 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
FC Portland Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -14 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 10:30 AM |
Eugene Metro FC Pre 4th · 3-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–1 | 2.60 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
United PDX Pre 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -17 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.87 | 2.45 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 04:30 PM |
Eastside Timbers Pre 6th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.64 | 2.45 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.28 | -0.30 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs United PDX Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Eugene Metro FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Eastside Timbers Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Oregon Premier FC Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.34 | -0.14 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portland City United SC PRE · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Portland Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Surf PreECNL See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Oregon Surf PreECNL | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.29 | +0.00 | 93% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Portland City United SC PRE · Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside Timbers Pre · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Eugene Metro FC Pre | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWL | +0.16 | -0.07 | 52% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Portland Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I · Sat Nov 7 at FC Portland Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Portland City United SC PRE | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 | 1.40 | LWLDW | -0.49 | +0.10 | 51% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Portland Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Eastside Timbers Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | LWWLL | -0.33 | +0.19 | 4% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sun Nov 8 at United PDX Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Portland Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLDL | +0.68 | +0.05 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eugene Metro FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Oregon Premier FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | United PDX Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 19 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.60 | +0.13 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC Pre- G14/15 I · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sun Nov 8 vs Eastside Timbers Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.83 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.