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Oregon Surf PreECNL

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Far West GU11 · 7 teams · Oregon Surf SC (all teams)

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7th
0-1-4 record · 5 played
0.20 points per game
-20 goal diff · 0–20
LLLDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9
+1.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Oregon Surf PreECNL
7th · 0.20 PPG
vs
Eastside Timbers Pre
4th · 1.40 PPG

THPRD Rec Center, # 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.9 against · 0.84 expected points)

Season so farOregon Surf PreECNLEastside Timbers Pre
Position7th4th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-42-1-2
Points per game0.201.40
Goals for / game0.00.8
Goals against / game4.02.6
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless53
Form (recent first)L D L L LD L W W L
Biggest win—1–0 at Portland City United SC PRE
Worst loss0–7 at Oregon Premier FC Pre0–6 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.13-1.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.08+0.06

Common opponents: Eugene Metro FC Pre — we 0–2, 0–4, 0–0; they 0–5. Oregon Premier FC Pre — we 0–7; they 0–6.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Eastside Timbers Pre average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Eastside Timbers Pre concede 2.6/game; worst result 0–6 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–2 at Eugene Metro FC Pre, 0–4 at Eugene Metro FC Pre, 0–7 at Oregon Premier FC Pre, 0–0 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre, 0–7 at Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 21%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    United PDX Pre sit 6th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.20.

    A point moves us above United PDX Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eastside Timbers Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Surf PreECNL – Eastside Timbers Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.33 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Win
0.67 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Draw
0.33 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Loss
0.17 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
6.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 96%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.22 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I 2.60 (+2.40) 1st (2.54) 46 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Eugene Metro FC Pre 1.83 (+1.63) 3rd (1.64) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 Oregon Premier FC Pre 1.75 (+1.55) 2nd (2.16) 31 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
4 Eastside Timbers Pre 1.40 (+1.20) 5th (0.98) 25 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
5 Portland City United SC PRE 1.00 (+0.80) 6th (0.96) 17 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
6 United PDX Pre 0.60 (+0.40) 4th (1.12) A point next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Oregon Surf PreECNL to Eastside Timbers Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
8 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–7 6–0 0–4 5–0 0–2 0–0 0–7 1–0 6–0 0–0 0–0 2–3 0–1 5–1 2–2 Oregon Surf PreECNL 7th Oregon Premier FC P… 3rd Eugene Metro FC Pre 2nd Capital FC Pre- G15… 1st Portland City Unite… 5th United PDX Pre 6th Eastside Timbers Pre 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 4th 7th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.22 · 3rd hardest of 7

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 11
TBD
no score posted		 Portland City United SC PRE
5th · 1-1-2 · GD -5		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%		 0–1 0.80 0.30 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Eastside Timbers Pre
4th · 2-1-2 · GD -9		 Home
THPRD Rec Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–1 0.84 0.38 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 United PDX Pre
6th · 0-3-2 · GD -3		 Away far trip
Oregon Episcopal School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–2 0.37 0.38 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD		 Oregon Premier FC Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +12		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.08 0.34 Upside
Sat Jan 30
TBD		 Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.02 0.31 Upside
Sat Feb 6
TBD		 Oregon Premier FC Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +12		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.08 0.29 Upside
Sat Feb 13
TBD		 Oregon Premier FC Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +12		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.08 0.27 Upside
Sun Feb 21
TBD		 Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.03 0.25 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Eastside Timbers Pre
4th · 2-1-2 · GD -9		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–1 0.84 0.30 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 United PDX Pre
6th · 0-3-2 · GD -3		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–2 0.37 0.30 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Eastside Timbers Pre
4th · 2-1-2 · GD -9		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 0–2 0.64 0.32 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 PM		 Portland City United SC PRE
5th · 1-1-2 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Buckman Field Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 0–1 0.63 0.34 Upside
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 Portland City United SC PRE
5th · 1-1-2 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Buckman Field Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 0–1 0.63 0.36 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I 5410 213+18 132.60 WWWDW -0.24 -0.42 100% 1.1
2 Eugene Metro FC Pre 6321 125+7 111.83 WDLWD -0.92 +0.34 98% 3.1
3 Oregon Premier FC Pre 4211 142+12 71.75 WLWD -0.34 -0.35 100% 2.0
4 Eastside Timbers Pre 5212 413-9 71.40 LWWLD +0.06 +0.24 22% 5.2
5 Portland City United SC PRE 4112 27-5 41.00 LWLD -0.16 +0.18 23% 5.2
6 United PDX Pre 5032 58-3 30.60 LDLDD +0.52 +0.04 58% 4.5
7 Oregon Surf PreECNL 5014 020-20 10.20 LLLDL +1.08 +0.22 0% 6.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.62 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.