Eugene Metro FC Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Far West GU11 · 7 teams · Eugene Metro FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 09:00 AM
Lane Community College, Track Field ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.2 against · 0.78 expected points)
| Season so far | Eugene Metro FC Pre | Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-1 | 4-1-0 |
| Points per game | 1.83 | 2.60 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 4.2 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D W L D W | W D W W W |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Eastside Timbers Pre | 7–0 vs Oregon Surf PreECNL |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.52 | +2.17 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.92 | -0.24 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 1–5 at Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I (L)
Common opponents: Oregon Surf PreECNL — we 2–0, 4–0, 0–0; they 7–0. United PDX Pre — we 0–0; they 2–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I score 4.2/game — well above the league's 1.6.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs United PDX Pre, 0–0 at Oregon Surf PreECNL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 19%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eugene Metro FC Pre – Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.57 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 1.71 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.57 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 6%
- 3rd 84%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 2%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.61 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I | 2.60 (+0.77) | 1st (2.54) | 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
How the results connect
14 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Eugene Metro FC Pre to Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.34 · 1st hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 1.68 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 2.01 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM |
Oregon Premier FC Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +12 |
Home Bob Keefer |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.99 | 1.64 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 03:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers Pre 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–0 | 2.24 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
United PDX Pre 6th · 0-3-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.72 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 13 10:00 AM |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -5 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
1–0 | 2.20 | 1.74 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 05:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers Pre 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–0 | 2.24 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM |
Oregon Premier FC Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
TBA |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.77 | 1.71 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
United PDX Pre 6th · 0-3-2 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–0 | 1.94 | 1.73 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.58 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.99 | 1.61 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 10:30 AM |
Portland City United SC PRE 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 2.01 | 1.64 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 3 | +18 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWDW | -0.24 | -0.42 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs United PDX Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Eugene Metro FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Eastside Timbers Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Eugene Metro FC Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 11 | 1.83 | WDLWD | -0.92 | +0.34 | 98% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I · Sat Nov 14 at Portland City United SC PRE · Sun Nov 15 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Oregon Premier FC Pre | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | -0.34 | -0.35 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portland City United SC PRE · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sun Nov 15 at Eugene Metro FC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Eastside Timbers Pre | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 7 | 1.40 | LWWLD | +0.06 | +0.24 | 23% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sun Nov 8 at United PDX Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Portland City United SC PRE | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | -0.16 | +0.18 | 22% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | United PDX Pre | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | 0.60 | LDLDD | +0.52 | +0.04 | 57% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Surf PreECNL · Sun Nov 8 vs Eastside Timbers Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Oregon Surf PreECNL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20 | -20 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +1.08 | +0.22 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Portland City United SC PRE · Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside Timbers Pre · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.62 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.