TableChase Clubs

Eastside Timbers Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Far West GU11 · 7 teams · Eastside Timbers (all teams)

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4th
2-1-2 record · 5 played
1.40 points per game
-9 goal diff · 4–13
LWWLDlast 5
22% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2
+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Eastside Timbers Pre
4th · 1.40 PPG
at
Oregon Surf PreECNL
7th · 0.20 PPG

THPRD Rec Center, # 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.1 against · 1.94 expected points)

Season so farEastside Timbers PreOregon Surf PreECNL
Position4th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-20-1-4
Points per game1.400.20
Goals for / game0.80.0
Goals against / game2.64.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless35
Form (recent first)D L W W LL D L L L
Biggest win1–0 at Portland City United SC PRE—
Worst loss0–6 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre0–7 at Oregon Premier FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.15-2.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.06+1.08

Common opponents: Oregon Premier FC Pre — we 0–6; they 0–7. Eugene Metro FC Pre — we 0–5; they 0–2, 0–4, 0–0.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Oregon Surf PreECNL average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 5 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Oregon Surf PreECNL concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–7 at Oregon Premier FC Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre, 0–5 at Eugene Metro FC Pre, 0–0 vs Portland City United SC PRE.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 57% / draw 22% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at THPRD Rec Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oregon Surf PreECNL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eastside Timbers Pre – Oregon Surf PreECNL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.33 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Win
1.67 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.33 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Loss
1.17 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
22% top 4
78% below the top 4
5.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 38%
  6. 6th 38%
  7. 7th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I 2.60 (+1.20) 1st (2.54) 40 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
2 Eugene Metro FC Pre 1.83 (+0.43) 3rd (1.64) 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
3 Oregon Premier FC Pre 1.75 (+0.35) 2nd (2.16) 25 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Eastside Timbers Pre to Oregon Surf PreECNL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–5 4–0 0–6 7–0 2–0 0–0 0–1 7–0 0–0 0–6 3–2 0–0 1–5 1–0 2–2 Eastside Timbers Pre 4th Eugene Metro FC Pre 2nd Oregon Premier FC P… 3rd Portland City Unite… 5th United PDX Pre 6th Capital FC Pre- G15… 1st Oregon Surf PreECNL 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 4th 7th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.24 · 2nd hardest of 7

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Oregon Surf PreECNL
7th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Away far trip
THPRD Rec Center		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 1–1 1.94 1.49 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 United PDX Pre
6th · 0-3-2 · GD -3		 Away
Oregon Episcopal School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–1 0.78 1.39 Upside
Sat Nov 14
03:00 PM		 Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18		 Home
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.13 1.23 Upside
Sat Nov 21
03:00 PM		 Eugene Metro FC Pre
2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +7		 Home
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 0–2 0.58 1.16 Upside
Sat Jan 23
11:00 AM		 Oregon Premier FC Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +12		 Away far trip
TBA		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.15 1.06 Upside
Sat Feb 20
03:00 PM		 Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18		 Home
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.13 0.97 Upside
Sun Feb 21
05:00 PM		 Eugene Metro FC Pre
2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +7		 Home
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 0–2 0.58 0.94 Upside
Sat Feb 27
09:00 AM		 Portland City United SC PRE
5th · 1-1-2 · GD -5		 Away
Buckman Field Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.13 0.96 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 United PDX Pre
6th · 0-3-2 · GD -3		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–1 0.78 0.94 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Oregon Surf PreECNL
7th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 1–1 1.94 1.01 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Oregon Surf PreECNL
7th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–0 2.16 1.08 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
01:00 PM		 Oregon Premier FC Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +12		 Home
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.24 1.03 Upside
Sun Apr 25
03:00 PM		 Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18		 Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.07 0.98 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Capital FC Pre- G15/16 I 5410 213+18 132.60 WWWDW -0.24 -0.42 100% 1.1
2 Eugene Metro FC Pre 6321 125+7 111.83 WDLWD -0.92 +0.34 98% 3.1
3 Oregon Premier FC Pre 4211 142+12 71.75 WLWD -0.34 -0.35 100% 2.0
4 Eastside Timbers Pre 5212 413-9 71.40 LWWLD +0.06 +0.24 22% 5.2
5 Portland City United SC PRE 4112 27-5 41.00 LWLD -0.16 +0.18 23% 5.2
6 United PDX Pre 5032 58-3 30.60 LDLDD +0.52 +0.04 57% 4.6
7 Oregon Surf PreECNL 5014 020-20 10.20 LLLDL +1.08 +0.22 0% 6.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.62 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.