San Diego Surf Pre- Black II
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU12 · 9 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:30 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.7 against · 0.78 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf Pre- Black II | Rebels SC Pre- White II |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L | W W W L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at CDA Slammers FC Pre White II | 3–0 vs CDA Slammers FC Pre White II |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Pateadores Pre- Blue II | 1–2 vs LAFC Pre White II |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.72 | +0.78 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.13 | +0.43 |
Common opponents: Pateadores Pre- Blue II — we 0–4; they 3–2. CDA Slammers FC Pre White II — we 2–0; they 3–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Pateadores Pre- Blue II.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Rebels SC Pre- White II have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II sit 6th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC Pre- White II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf Pre- Black II – Rebels SC Pre- White II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.60 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 25%
- 7th 60%
- 8th 9%
- 9th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC Pre White II | 3.00 (+2.25) | 1st (2.62) | 54 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Empire Surf Pre- II | 2.50 (+1.75) | 2nd (2.00) | 45 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 3 | Rebels SC Pre- White II | 2.25 (+1.50) | 3rd (1.97) | 40 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 4 | Pateadores Pre- Blue II | 1.50 (+0.75) | 4th (1.81) | 26 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 5 | LA Breakers Pre- Red II | 1.50 (+0.75) | 5th (1.53) | 26 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 6 | SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II | 0.75 (+0.00) | 6th (1.20) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
4 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf Pre- Black II to Rebels SC Pre- White II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.05 · 4th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4 01:30 PM no score posted |
LA Breakers Pre- Red II 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Vista Del Mar Child and Family Services |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–3 | 0.75 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
Rebels SC Pre- White II 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:30 AM |
SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Willow Grove Elementary School |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 0.99 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 01:30 PM |
Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -20 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.35 | 0.98 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 13 01:00 PM |
LAFC Pre White II 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Oak Park High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.18 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 01:30 PM |
Rebels SC Pre- White II 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Southwestern College |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.56 | 0.86 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:30 AM |
West Coast FC Pre- White II |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.14 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 28 01:30 PM |
CDA Slammers FC Pre White II 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -9 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 0.97 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Empire Surf Pre- II 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Galway Downs |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.49 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:30 AM |
Rebels SC Pre- Blue II |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.14 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 10:30 AM |
LA Breakers Pre- Red II 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.02 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 10:30 AM |
SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 0.98 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 10:20 AM |
Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Solana Pacific School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–1 | 2.09 | 1.04 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Pateadores Pre- Blue II 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 01:30 PM |
LAFC Pre White II 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.29 | 0.98 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | LAFC Pre White II | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | +17 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.38 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Empire Surf Pre- II · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC Pre- Blue II · Sun Nov 8 vs Empire Surf Pre- II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Empire Surf Pre- II | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 10 | 2.50 | DWWW | -1.20 | +0.10 | 93% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Rebels SC Pre- White II · Sun Oct 25 vs LAFC Pre White II · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Pre- Blue II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rebels SC Pre- White II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | +0.43 | -0.25 | 92% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Empire Surf Pre- II · Sun Nov 1 at San Diego Surf Pre- Black II · Sun Nov 8 vs Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pateadores Pre- Blue II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | +0.56 | -0.25 | 79% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver · Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC Pre- Blue II · Sun Nov 1 at Empire Surf Pre- II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | LA Breakers Pre- Red II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 6 | 1.50 | WLL | -0.16 | -0.01 | 31% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs San Diego Surf Pre- Black II · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver · Sun Nov 15 at LAFC Pre White II See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.36 | -0.05 | 4% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at CDA Slammers FC Pre White II · Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast FC Pre- White II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | San Diego Surf Pre- Black II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +0.13 | +0.05 | 1% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at LA Breakers Pre- Red II · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC Pre- White II · Sun Nov 8 at SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 23 | -20 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +0.34 | +0.24 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Pateadores Pre- Blue II · Sun Nov 1 vs LA Breakers Pre- Red II · Sun Nov 15 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | CDA Slammers FC Pre White II | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.69 | +0.32 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II · Sun Oct 25 vs Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II · Sun Nov 1 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.