LA Breakers Pre- Red II
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU12 · 9 teams · LA Breakers FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:20 AM
Solana Pacific School, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.6 for, 1.7 against · 2.59 expected points)
| Season so far | LA Breakers Pre- Red II | Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-2 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 5.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W | W L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs CDA Slammers FC Pre White II | 2–1 vs CDA Slammers FC Pre White II |
| Worst loss | 2–4 vs Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II | 0–10 vs LAFC Pre White II |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.24 | -2.72 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.16 | +0.34 |
Common opponents: CDA Slammers FC Pre White II — we 4–1; they 2–1.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 2 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver concede 5.8/game; worst result 0–10 vs LAFC Pre White II.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Away game
Kickoff 10:20 AM at Solana Pacific School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Pateadores Pre- Blue II sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Pateadores Pre- Blue II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Breakers Pre- Red II – Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.80 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.80 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.40 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.20 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th 20%
- 5th 50%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 3%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.70 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC Pre White II | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.62) | 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection |
| 2 | Empire Surf Pre- II | 2.50 (+1.00) | 2nd (2.00) | 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 3 | Rebels SC Pre- White II | 2.25 (+0.75) | 3rd (1.97) | 39 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 4 | Pateadores Pre- Blue II | 1.50 (+0.00) | 4th (1.81) | A point next game |
How the results connect
3 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link LA Breakers Pre- Red II to Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4 01:30 PM no score posted |
San Diego Surf Pre- Black II 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home Vista Del Mar Child and Family Services |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–1 | 2.09 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 10:20 AM |
Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Solana Pacific School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
4–1 | 2.59 | 1.78 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
LAFC Pre White II 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Oak Park High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 11:40 AM |
Pateadores Pre- Blue II 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Vanguard University · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
2–2 | 0.97 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 10:30 AM |
Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II |
Home Vista Del Mar Child and Family Services |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–2 | 1.70 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 01:30 PM |
SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home Vista Del Mar Child and Family Services |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
3–2 | 1.91 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
LAFC Pre White II 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.50 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC Pre White II 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -9 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.16 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 28 TBD |
Empire Surf Pre- II 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
Empire Surf Pre- II 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Galway Downs |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 10:30 AM |
San Diego Surf Pre- Black II 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.80 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Rebels SC Pre- White II 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -20 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
5–1 | 2.76 | 1.53 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–2 | 1.70 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
3–2 | 1.56 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Pateadores Pre- Blue II 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.28 | 1.53 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC Pre White II | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | +17 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.38 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Empire Surf Pre- II · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC Pre- Blue II · Sun Nov 8 vs Empire Surf Pre- II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Empire Surf Pre- II | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 10 | 2.50 | DWWW | -1.20 | +0.10 | 92% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Rebels SC Pre- White II · Sun Oct 25 vs LAFC Pre White II · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Pre- Blue II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Rebels SC Pre- White II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | +0.43 | -0.25 | 93% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Empire Surf Pre- II · Sun Nov 1 at San Diego Surf Pre- Black II · Sun Nov 8 vs Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Pateadores Pre- Blue II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | +0.56 | -0.25 | 79% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver · Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC Pre- Blue II · Sun Nov 1 at Empire Surf Pre- II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | LA Breakers Pre- Red II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 6 | 1.50 | WLL | -0.16 | -0.01 | 31% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs San Diego Surf Pre- Black II · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver · Sun Nov 15 at LAFC Pre White II See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.36 | -0.05 | 4% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at CDA Slammers FC Pre White II · Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast FC Pre- White II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | San Diego Surf Pre- Black II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +0.13 | +0.05 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at LA Breakers Pre- Red II · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC Pre- White II · Sun Nov 8 at SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Legends FC - Del Mar Pre Silver | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 23 | -20 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +0.34 | +0.24 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Pateadores Pre- Blue II · Sun Nov 1 vs LA Breakers Pre- Red II · Sun Nov 15 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | CDA Slammers FC Pre White II | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.69 | +0.32 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II · Sun Oct 25 vs Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II · Sun Nov 1 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.