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Sporting California USA Pre- RED I

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU11 · 8 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

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8th
0-0-4 record · 4 played
0.00 points per game
-21 goal diff · 5–26
LLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.6
+0.86 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:30 AM

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Sporting California USA Pre- RED I
8th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Rebels SC Pre- I
6th · 0.80 PPG

San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 6 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.2 for, 3.6 against · 0.77 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USA Pre- RED IRebels SC Pre- I
Position8th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-41-1-3
Points per game0.000.80
Goals for / game1.32.0
Goals against / game6.53.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L L LL L W L D
Biggest win—6–2 vs Legends FC PRE Gold I
Worst loss1–7 at LAFC Pre PLATINUM I0–5 at LAFC Pre PLATINUM I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.67-0.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.86+0.64

Common opponents: Legends FC PRE Gold I — we 1–6; they 6–2. LAFC Pre PLATINUM I — we 1–7; they 0–5. West Coast FC Pre- Navy I — we 3–8; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 21%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I sit 7th on 0.25 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA Pre- RED I – Rebels SC Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Win
0.60 PPG		 7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds
Draw
0.20 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
7.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 34%
  8. 8th 64%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.37 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.69) 57 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I 2.25 (+2.25) 2nd (2.25) 43 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
3 West Coast FC Pre- Navy I 2.25 (+2.25) 3rd (1.81) 43 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 Legends FC PRE Gold I 1.50 (+1.50) 5th (1.49) 29 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I 1.50 (+1.50) 4th (1.56) 29 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 Rebels SC Pre- I 0.80 (+0.80) 6th (1.14) 16 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I 0.25 (+0.25) 7th (0.49) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA Pre- RED I to Rebels SC Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
9 favour them
-3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–7 5–0 3–8 3–1 1–6 2–6 5–0 8–2 1–1 0–5 2–4 4–1 2–0 4–2 3–1 2–7 Sporting California… 8th LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 1st West Coast FC Pre- … 3rd Legends FC PRE Gold… 4th Beach Futbol Club P… 5th San Diego Surf Pre-… 7th LA Breakers Pre- Bl… 2nd Rebels SC Pre- I 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.26 · 2nd hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
08:00 AM
no score posted		 San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I
7th · 0-1-3 · GD -17		 Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 3–2 1.56 0.31 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:30 AM		 Rebels SC Pre- I
6th · 1-1-3 · GD -5		 Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–3 0.77 0.39 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13		 Away far trip
Vista Del Mar Child and Family Services		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–6 0.08 0.34 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 LAFC Pre PLATINUM I
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–6 0.04 0.31 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Legends FC PRE I
 Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 2–4 0.54 0.33 Upside
Sun Dec 13
TBD		 LAFC Pre GOLD I
 Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 2–4 0.54 0.35 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Pateadores Pre- I
 Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 2–4 0.54 0.37 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Pre Maroon I
 Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 2–4 0.54 0.38 Upside
Sun Apr 11
09:00 AM		 Legends FC PRE Gold I
4th · 2-0-2 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 2–6 0.23 0.37 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 LAFC Pre PLATINUM I
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.08 0.35 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 West Coast FC Pre- Navy I
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–5 0.21 0.34 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 PM		 San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I
7th · 0-1-3 · GD -17		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–3 1.19 0.39 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I
5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
13%		 2–4 0.51 0.40 Upside
Sun May 9
09:30 AM		 Rebels SC Pre- I
6th · 1-1-3 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Southwestern College		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–4 0.51 0.41 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD		 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–5 0.15 0.39 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 5500 233+20 153.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.55 100% 1.1
2 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I 4301 196+13 92.25 WWWL +0.01 -0.28 99% 2.1
3 West Coast FC Pre- Navy I 4301 1510+5 92.25 LWWW -0.81 +0.12 87% 3.3
4 Legends FC PRE Gold I 4202 1712+5 61.50 WLLW -1.37 +0.33 45% 4.6
5 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I 4202 1212+0 61.50 LWLW +0.37 -0.18 59% 4.3
6 Rebels SC Pre- I 5113 1015-5 40.80 DLWLL +0.64 -0.18 9% 5.7
7 San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I 4013 421-17 10.25 DLLL +0.60 +0.16 0% 7.3
8 Sporting California USA Pre- RED I 4004 526-21 00.00 LLLL +0.86 +0.26 0% 7.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.