TableChase Clubs

Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU11 · 8 teams · Beach Futbol Club (all teams)

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5th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+0 goal diff · 12–12
LWLWlast 4
59% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3
+0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I
5th · 1.50 PPG
vs
San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I
7th · 0.25 PPG

El Segundo High School, Small Sided ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.5 for, 1.8 against · 2.55 expected points)

Season so farBeach Futbol Club Pre- Gold ISan Diego Surf Pre- Blue I
Position5th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-20-1-3
Points per game1.500.25
Goals for / game3.01.0
Goals against / game3.05.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W L W LL L L D
Biggest win5–0 vs Sporting California USA Pre- RED I—
Worst loss2–7 vs LA Breakers Pre- Blue I0–8 vs LA Breakers Pre- Blue I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.11-2.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.37+0.60

Common opponents: LA Breakers Pre- Blue I — we 2–7; they 0–8. Legends FC PRE Gold I — we 3–1; they 2–8.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 3.1); blanked in 1 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I concede 5.2/game; worst result 0–8 vs LA Breakers Pre- Blue I.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I have lost 3 straight (form: DLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC PRE Gold I sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Legends FC PRE Gold I on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I – San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.80 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Win
1.80 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG		 5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Loss
1.20 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
59% top 4
41% below the top 4
4.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 37%
  5. 5th 30%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.69) 48 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I 2.25 (+0.75) 2nd (2.25) 35 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
3 West Coast FC Pre- Navy I 2.25 (+0.75) 3rd (1.81) 35 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 Legends FC PRE Gold I 1.50 (+0.00) 5th (1.49) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I to San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
2 favour them
+3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–7 8–0 3–1 8–2 2–6 1–1 5–0 3–8 4–1 2–4 5–0 4–2 1–6 5–0 2–0 Beach Futbol Club P… 5th LA Breakers Pre- Bl… 2nd Legends FC PRE Gold… 4th Sporting California… 8th LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 1st Rebels SC Pre- I 6th West Coast FC Pre- … 3rd San Diego Surf Pre-… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 5th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
09:00 AM
no score posted		 West Coast FC Pre- Navy I
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Robert A Curtis Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–3 1.02 1.40 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I
7th · 0-1-3 · GD -17		 Home
El Segundo High School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 4–1 2.55 1.59 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
10:30 AM		 Rebels SC Pre- I
6th · 1-1-3 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Southwestern College		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.54 1.59 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 LAFC Pre GOLD I
 Home
El Segundo High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 3–2 1.65 1.59 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
09:00 AM		 Pateadores Pre- I
 Home
El Segundo High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 3–2 1.65 1.60 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Pre Maroon I
 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 3–2 1.65 1.61 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Legends FC PRE I
 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 3–2 1.65 1.61 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 2–4 0.56 1.52 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Legends FC PRE Gold I
4th · 2-0-2 · GD +5		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 3–3 1.48 1.52 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 LAFC Pre PLATINUM I
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.34 1.44 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 West Coast FC Pre- Navy I
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 3–3 1.37 1.43 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Sporting California USA Pre- RED I
8th · 0-0-4 · GD -21		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 4–2 2.38 1.49 Bank it
Sun May 9
09:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I
7th · 0-1-3 · GD -17		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 3–1 2.31 1.54 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD		 Rebels SC Pre- I
6th · 1-1-3 · GD -5		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 3–2 1.88 1.56 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 5500 233+20 153.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.55 100% 1.1
2 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I 4301 196+13 92.25 WWWL +0.01 -0.28 99% 2.1
3 West Coast FC Pre- Navy I 4301 1510+5 92.25 LWWW -0.81 +0.12 87% 3.3
4 Legends FC PRE Gold I 4202 1712+5 61.50 WLLW -1.37 +0.33 45% 4.6
5 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I 4202 1212+0 61.50 LWLW +0.37 -0.18 59% 4.3
6 Rebels SC Pre- I 5113 1015-5 40.80 DLWLL +0.64 -0.18 9% 5.7
7 San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I 4013 421-17 10.25 DLLL +0.60 +0.16 0% 7.3
8 Sporting California USA Pre- RED I 4004 526-21 00.00 LLLL +0.86 +0.26 0% 7.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.