TableChase Clubs

West Coast FC Pre- Navy I

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU11 · 8 teams · West Coast F.C. (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+5 goal diff · 15–10
LWWWlast 4
86% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.4
-0.81 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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West Coast FC Pre- Navy I
3rd · 2.25 PPG
vs
LA Breakers Pre- Blue I
2nd · 2.25 PPG

Robert A Curtis Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.7 for, 3.5 against · 1.04 expected points)

Season so farWest Coast FC Pre- Navy ILA Breakers Pre- Blue I
Position3rd2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-0-13-0-1
Points per game2.252.25
Goals for / game3.84.8
Goals against / game2.51.5
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W W LL W W W
Biggest win8–3 at Sporting California USA Pre- RED I8–0 at San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I
Worst loss0–5 vs LAFC Pre PLATINUM I0–2 vs LAFC Pre PLATINUM I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.61+1.81
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.81+0.01

Common opponents: LAFC Pre PLATINUM I — we 0–5; they 0–2. San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I — we 4–1; they 8–0. Rebels SC Pre- I — we 3–1; they 4–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LA Breakers Pre- Blue I score 4.8/game — well above the league's 3.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    LA Breakers Pre- Blue I concede only 1.5/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs LAFC Pre PLATINUM I.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    LA Breakers Pre- Blue I sit 2nd on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above LA Breakers Pre- Blue I on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Breakers Pre- Blue I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Coast FC Pre- Navy I – LA Breakers Pre- Blue I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.80 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Win
2.40 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.80 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
86% top 4
14% below the top 4
3.4 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 12%
  3. 3rd 51%
  4. 4th 23%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.69) 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
2 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I 2.25 (+0.00) 2nd (2.25) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link West Coast FC Pre- Navy I to LA Breakers Pre- Blue I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
7 favour them
-2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 2–4 0–5 2–0 4–1 0–8 0–5 8–3 1–7 1–1 0–5 2–7 4–2 West Coast FC Pre- … 3rd Rebels SC Pre- I 6th LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 1st San Diego Surf Pre-… 7th Sporting California… 8th Beach Futbol Club P… 5th LA Breakers Pre- Bl… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 4th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I
5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
Robert A Curtis Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 3–2 1.83 2.17 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13		 Home
Robert A Curtis Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–3 1.04 1.98 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 Legends FC PRE Gold I
4th · 2-0-2 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 3–3 1.34 1.89 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 CDA Slammers FC Pre Maroon I
 Home
Robert A Curtis Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 3–2 1.88 1.89 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM		 Legends FC PRE I
 Home
STONEGATE PARK		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 3–2 1.88 1.89 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 LAFC Pre GOLD I
 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 3–2 1.88 1.89 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Pateadores Pre- I
 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 3–2 1.88 1.88 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 LAFC Pre PLATINUM I
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–3 0.67 1.78 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 PM		 San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I
7th · 0-1-3 · GD -17		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 4–1 2.48 1.84 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Sporting California USA Pre- RED I
8th · 0-0-4 · GD -21		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 5–1 2.73 1.90 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I
5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 3–3 1.46 1.87 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD		 Rebels SC Pre- I
6th · 1-1-3 · GD -5		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–2 2.09 1.89 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD		 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 2–4 0.72 1.82 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD		 Legends FC PRE Gold I
4th · 2-0-2 · GD +5		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 3–3 1.73 1.81 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 5500 233+20 153.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.55 100% 1.1
2 LA Breakers Pre- Blue I 4301 196+13 92.25 WWWL +0.01 -0.28 100% 2.1
3 West Coast FC Pre- Navy I 4301 1510+5 92.25 LWWW -0.81 +0.12 86% 3.4
4 Legends FC PRE Gold I 4202 1712+5 61.50 WLLW -1.37 +0.33 46% 4.5
5 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I 4202 1212+0 61.50 LWLW +0.37 -0.18 60% 4.3
6 Rebels SC Pre- I 5113 1015-5 40.80 DLWLL +0.64 -0.18 9% 5.7
7 San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I 4013 421-17 10.25 DLLL +0.60 +0.16 0% 7.3
8 Sporting California USA Pre- RED I 4004 526-21 00.00 LLLL +0.86 +0.26 0% 7.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.