SDSC Surf Pre- Blue I

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Vanguard University, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 3–3 (expected goals 3.0 for, 3.1 against · 1.38 expected points)

Common opponents: Legends FC PRE I — we 0–4; they 0–8. San Diego Surf Pre- White I — we 1–7; they 0–13.

• They struggle to score
  Pateadores Pre- I average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 3.4); blanked in 2 of 3.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Pateadores Pre- I concede 8.7/game; worst result 0–13 at San Diego Surf Pre- White I.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Legends FC PRE I, 0–6 vs Beach Futbol Club Pre- White I.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 40%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Pateadores Pre- I have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 10:20 AM at Vanguard University.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- Blue I sit 6th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

  A point moves us above Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- Blue I on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SDSC Surf Pre- Blue I – Pateadores Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–3 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th <1%
5. 5th 6%
6. 6th 62%
7. 7th 26%
8. 8th 6%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).