TableChase Clubs

SOLAR PRE- GARCIA

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU12 · 9 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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5th
3-1-2 record · 6 played
1.67 points per game
+2 goal diff · 13–11
LWDWLlast 5
28% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8
-0.50 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:00 AM

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SOLAR PRE- GARCIA
5th · 1.67 PPG
vs
Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford
2nd · 2.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6B ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.5 against · 0.84 expected points)

Season so farSOLAR PRE- GARCIAKernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford
Position5th2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-24-0-2
Points per game1.672.00
Goals for / game2.23.7
Goals against / game1.81.2
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L W D W LL W W L W
Biggest win3–1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes7–0 vs Sting WTX Pre- Alvarado
Worst loss3–4 at Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira1–3 vs Fever United FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.11+1.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.50+0.02

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes — we 3–1; they 6–2. Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira — we 3–4; they 0–1. Sting WTX Pre- Alvarado — we 1–1; they 7–0. Fever United FC Pre — we 1–0; they 1–3. NTX UNITED FC - Pre- Hume — we 3–4; they 7–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford concede only 1.2/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 22%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Fever United FC Pre sit 4th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A point moves us above Fever United FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- GARCIA – Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.43 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
1.86 PPG		 2nd▲ up 3 3rd▲ up 2 4th▲ up 1
Draw
1.57 PPG		 5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Loss
1.43 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
28% top 4
72% below the top 4
4.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 52%
  6. 6th 18%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira 3.00 (+1.33) 1st (2.71) 14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford 2.00 (+0.33) 2nd (2.08) 6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans 1.80 (+0.13) 3rd (1.82) A point next game
4 Fever United FC Pre 1.80 (+0.13) 4th (1.78) A point next game

How the results connect

26 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- GARCIA to Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
22 favour them
-3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–4 1–0 3–1 2–6 1–0 3–1 3–4 1–7 1–1 0–7 7–2 1–4 0–3 2–1 0–5 7–2 2–5 SOLAR PRE- GARCIA 5th Texas Warriors FC P… 1st FC Dallas Youth Pre… 6th Fever United FC Pre 4th NTX UNITED FC - Pre… 7th Sting WTX Pre- Alva… 8th Sting Pre- M Willia… 9th Kernow Storm FC Pre… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.41 · 1st hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
08:00 AM		 Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.84 1.55 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:30 AM		 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +11		 Home
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.99 1.48 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira 6600 257+18 183.00 WWWWW -0.53 +0.85 100% 1.1
2 Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford 6402 227+15 122.00 WLWWL +0.02 -0.85 99% 2.3
3 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans 5302 176+11 91.80 LWWWL -0.24 +0.03 82% 3.4
4 Fever United FC Pre 5302 139+4 91.80 WWWLL -0.14 +0.12 77% 4.0
5 SOLAR PRE- GARCIA 6312 1311+2 101.67 LWDWL -0.50 +1.41 28% 4.8
6 FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes 6213 1320-7 71.17 LDLWL +0.43 -0.67 8% 6.1
7 NTX UNITED FC - Pre- Hume 6213 1624-8 71.17 LLDLW +0.38 -0.67 5% 6.4
8 Sting WTX Pre- Alvarado 8116 931-22 40.50 LLDLW +0.25 — 0% 8.2
9 Sting Pre- M Williams 4004 215-13 00.00 LLLL +0.06 +0.35 0% 8.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.