TableChase Clubs

Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU12 · 9 teams · Kernow Storm FC (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-2 record · 6 played
2.00 points per game
+15 goal diff · 22–7
WLWWLlast 5
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.4
+0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:00 AM

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Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford
2nd · 2.00 PPG
at
SOLAR PRE- GARCIA
5th · 1.67 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6B ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.5 against · 1.97 expected points)

Season so farKernow Storm FC Pre B BradfordSOLAR PRE- GARCIA
Position2nd5th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-23-1-2
Points per game2.001.67
Goals for / game3.72.2
Goals against / game1.21.8
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W W L WL W D W L
Biggest win7–0 vs Sting WTX Pre- Alvarado3–1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes
Worst loss1–3 vs Fever United FC Pre3–4 at Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.59+0.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.02-0.50

Common opponents: NTX UNITED FC - Pre- Hume — we 7–1; they 3–4. Fever United FC Pre — we 1–3; they 1–0. FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes — we 6–2; they 3–1. Sting WTX Pre- Alvarado — we 7–0; they 1–1. Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira — we 0–1; they 3–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 60% / draw 18% / loss 22%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:00 AM at Fairview Soccer Park .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR PRE- GARCIA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford – SOLAR PRE- GARCIA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.14 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.14 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
1.86 PPG		 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2
Loss
1.71 PPG		 5th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
2.4 average finish
  1. 1st 3%
  2. 2nd 67%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.71) 12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

26 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford to SOLAR PRE- GARCIA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

22 favour us
2 even
2 favour them
+3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 4–3 6–2 1–3 1–3 0–1 7–0 1–1 7–1 4–3 2–7 4–1 3–0 5–0 1–2 5–0 5–2 Kernow Storm FC Pre… 2nd Texas Warriors FC P… 1st FC Dallas Youth Pre… 6th Fever United FC Pre 4th Sting WTX Pre- Alva… 8th NTX UNITED FC - Pre… 7th Sting Pre- M Willia… 9th SOLAR PRE- GARCIA 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.85 · 8th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
08:00 AM		 SOLAR PRE- GARCIA
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Away
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.97 2.00 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:00 AM		 Sting Pre- M Williams
9th · 0-0-4 · GD -13		 Away
Fairview Soccer Park 		●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 3–0 2.71 2.08 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira 6600 257+18 183.00 WWWWW -0.53 +0.85 100% 1.1
2 Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford 6402 227+15 122.00 WLWWL +0.02 -0.85 98% 2.4
3 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans 5302 176+11 91.80 LWWWL -0.24 +0.03 83% 3.4
4 Fever United FC Pre 5302 139+4 91.80 WWWLL -0.14 +0.12 79% 3.9
5 SOLAR PRE- GARCIA 6312 1311+2 101.67 LWDWL -0.50 +1.41 28% 4.8
6 FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes 6213 1320-7 71.17 LDLWL +0.43 -0.67 7% 6.2
7 NTX UNITED FC - Pre- Hume 6213 1624-8 71.17 LLDLW +0.38 -0.67 5% 6.4
8 Sting WTX Pre- Alvarado 8116 931-22 40.50 LLDLW +0.25 — 0% 8.2
9 Sting Pre- M Williams 4004 215-13 00.00 LLLL +0.06 +0.35 0% 8.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.