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FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU12 · 9 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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6th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
-7 goal diff · 13–20
LDLWLlast 5
8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.1
+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes
6th · 1.17 PPG
vs
Sting Pre- M Williams
9th · 0.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3B ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.6 against · 2.25 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Pre- P ReyesSting Pre- M Williams
Position6th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-30-0-4
Points per game1.170.00
Goals for / game2.20.5
Goals against / game3.33.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)L W L D LL L L L
Biggest win4–2 at Sting WTX Pre- Alvarado—
Worst loss2–7 at Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira0–5 vs Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.65-1.81
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.43+0.06

Common opponents: Sting WTX Pre- Alvarado — we 4–2; they 1–3. SOLAR PRE- GARCIA — we 1–3; they 1–2. Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira — we 2–7; they 0–5.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Sting Pre- M Williams average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 2 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Sting Pre- M Williams concede 3.8/game; worst result 0–5 vs Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 70% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Sting Pre- M Williams have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Pre- M Williams game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes – Sting Pre- M Williams) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.43 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.43 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
1.14 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.00 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
8% top 4
92% below the top 4
6.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 10%
  6. 6th 43%
  7. 7th 38%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira 3.00 (+1.83) 1st (2.71) 17 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford 2.00 (+0.83) 2nd (2.08) 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans 1.80 (+0.63) 3rd (1.82) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Fever United FC Pre 1.80 (+0.63) 4th (1.78) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 SOLAR PRE- GARCIA 1.67 (+0.50) 5th (1.48) 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection

How the results connect

19 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes to Sting Pre- M Williams through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
4 even
3 favour them
+2.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–7 5–0 1–3 2–1 4–2 3–1 3–0 2–6 0–1 1–1 1–3 5–0 1–1 2–5 4–3 3–4 FC Dallas Youth Pre… 6th Texas Warriors FC P… 1st SOLAR PRE- GARCIA 5th Sting WTX Pre- Alva… 8th Kernow Storm FC Pre… 2nd NTX UNITED FC - Pre… 7th Fever United FC Pre 4th Sting Pre- M Willia… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.67 · 6th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Sting Pre- M Williams
9th · 0-0-4 · GD -13		 Home
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.25 1.32 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
12:30 PM		 Fever United FC Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4		 Away
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–3 0.72 1.25 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira 6600 257+18 183.00 WWWWW -0.53 +0.85 100% 1.1
2 Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford 6402 227+15 122.00 WLWWL +0.02 -0.85 99% 2.3
3 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans 5302 176+11 91.80 LWWWL -0.24 +0.03 82% 3.5
4 Fever United FC Pre 5302 139+4 91.80 WWWLL -0.14 +0.12 78% 3.9
5 SOLAR PRE- GARCIA 6312 1311+2 101.67 LWDWL -0.50 +1.41 28% 4.8
6 FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes 6213 1320-7 71.17 LDLWL +0.43 -0.67 8% 6.1
7 NTX UNITED FC - Pre- Hume 6213 1624-8 71.17 LLDLW +0.38 -0.67 5% 6.4
8 Sting WTX Pre- Alvarado 8116 931-22 40.50 LLDLW +0.25 — 0% 8.2
9 Sting Pre- M Williams 4004 215-13 00.00 LLLL +0.06 +0.35 0% 8.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.