FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans

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Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3B ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.2 for, 0.9 against · 2.76 expected points)

Common opponents: Sting WTX Pre- Alvarado — we 4–0; they 1–3. Fever United FC Pre — we 6–1; they 0–5.

• They struggle to score
  Sting Pre- M Williams average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 2 of 4.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Sting Pre- M Williams concede 3.8/game; worst result 0–5 vs Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Sting Pre- M Williams have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• What a win does
  Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.

  A win moves us above Kernow Storm FC Pre B Bradford on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Sting Pre- M Williams game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans – Sting Pre- M Williams) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

1. 1st 2%
2. 2nd 14%
3. 3rd 44%
4. 4th 22%
5. 5th 16%
6. 6th 2%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th
9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).