TAG Soccer Pre Perez

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Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3B ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.0 for, 2.0 against · 2.58 expected points)

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Pre- Flores — we 0–12; they 0–20. Albion SC Dallas Pre — we 0–5; they 1–13. Sting WTX Pre- Kobayashi — we 2–2; they 1–1. DKSC Pre- Shams — we 7–3; they 3–8. Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Vordtriede — we 1–3; they 0–3.

• They struggle to score
  Sting Pre- Soderholm average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 4.0); blanked in 3 of 6.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Sting Pre- Soderholm concede 9.2/game; worst result 0–20 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Flores.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–12 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Flores, 0–5 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre, 0–2 at Dallas Texans Pre- Benavides.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 83% chance; likely score 5–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Sting Pre- Soderholm have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 08:30 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

Where we'd sit after the Sting Pre- Soderholm game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TAG Soccer Pre Perez – Sting Pre- Soderholm) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–1 win we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th 4%
6. 6th 78%
7. 7th 16%
8. 8th 2%
9. 9th <1%
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.25 PPG if we win out).