Sting Pre- Ortiz
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU11 · 9 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM
Fairview Soccer Park , Field 4B ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.4 for, 0.9 against · 2.61 expected points)
| Season so far | Sting Pre- Ortiz | DKSC Pre Arana |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 0-1-3 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 0.25 |
| Goals for / game | 3.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W | D L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz | 0–5 vs NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.19 | -1.14 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.49 | +0.48 |
Common opponents: Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez — we 4–2; they 1–4. NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo — we 5–0; they 0–5. Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz — we 1–2; they 1–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
DKSC Pre Arana average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 1 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 83% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the DKSC Pre Arana game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Pre- Ortiz – DKSC Pre Arana) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.40 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 9%
- 2nd 33%
- 3rd 31%
- 4th 16%
- 5th 9%
- 6th 3%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz | 3.00 (+0.75) | 1st (2.63) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
12 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Sting Pre- Ortiz to DKSC Pre Arana through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.32 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM |
DKSC Pre Arana 8th · 0-1-3 · GD -9 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–0 | 2.61 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 09:30 AM |
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +7 |
Away Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.38 | 2.11 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 12:30 PM |
Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +6 |
Away Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 2.02 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.33 | +0.59 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine · Sat Nov 7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Sting Pre- Ortiz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.49 | +0.32 | 88% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC Pre Arana · Sun Oct 25 vs NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | +0.58 | -0.71 | 95% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- HEDGES · Sun Oct 25 at Sting Pre- Ortiz · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWLW | -0.50 | +0.81 | 29% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin · Sat Nov 7 at Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz · Sun Nov 8 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | -0.34 | +0.09 | 50% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo · Sun Nov 1 at DKSC Pre Arana · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Ortiz See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 7 | 1.40 | WLWDL | -0.43 | +0.62 | 36% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Ortiz · Sun Nov 1 vs NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 20 | +0 | 6 | 1.00 | WLWLL | -0.18 | +0.78 | 1% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | DKSC Pre Arana | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 1 | 0.25 | LLLD | +0.48 | -0.11 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Ortiz · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- HEDGES · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SOLAR PRE- HEDGES | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 33 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.64 | -0.14 | 0% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre Arana See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.