NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU11 · 9 teams · NTX Celtic FC (all teams)

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7th

2-0-4 record · 6 played

1.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 20–20

WLWLLlast 5

2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9

-0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:30 PM

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NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo
7th · 1.00 PPG

Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black
5th · 1.50 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 4B ↗

28% 17% 55%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.2 for, 3.0 against · 1.00 expected points)

Season so far	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black
Position	7th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-4	2-0-2
Points per game	1.00	1.50
Goals for / game	3.3	2.5
Goals against / game	3.3	1.0
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	L L W L W	W L W L
Biggest win	5–0 at DKSC Pre Arana	8–0 vs SOLAR PRE- HEDGES
Worst loss	0–5 at Sting Pre- Ortiz	0–2 at NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.10	+0.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.18	-0.34

Common opponents: NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin — we 3–6; they 0–2. SOLAR PRE- HEDGES — we 6–1; they 8–0. Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz — we 2–3; they 1–2.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at Sting Pre- Ortiz.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 28%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo – Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.86 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Win 1.29 PPG	6th▲ up 1	7th— holds	7th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Loss 0.86 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

2% top 4

98% below the top 4

6.9 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 2%
5th 4%
6th 12%
7th 71%
8th 11%
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz	3.00 (+2.00)	1st (2.63)	18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Sting Pre- Ortiz	2.25 (+1.25)	3rd (2.02)	12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin	2.25 (+1.25)	2nd (2.14)	12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez	1.80 (+0.80)	5th (1.53)	9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black	1.50 (+0.50)	4th (1.63)	6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine	1.40 (+0.40)	6th (1.51)	6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

15 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo to Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

1 even

10 favour them

-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.78 · 2nd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 03:30 PM	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +6	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●○ Tough	28%	2–3	1.00	1.00	Upside
Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +7	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–3	0.71	0.96	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz

3.00

WWWWW

-0.33

+0.59

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine · Sat Nov 7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Ortiz

+10

2.25

WWWL

-0.49

+0.32

88%

2.9

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC Pre Arana · Sun Oct 25 vs NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin

2.25

WLWW

+0.58

-0.71

94%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	6–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- HEDGES · Sun Oct 25 at Sting Pre- Ortiz · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	3–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	3–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez

1.80

WLWLW

-0.50

+0.81

30%

5.0

W	Sat Oct 10	at	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	5–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin · Sat Nov 7 at Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz · Sun Nov 8 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black

1.50

LWLW

-0.34

+0.09

51%

4.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	8–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo · Sun Nov 1 at DKSC Pre Arana · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Ortiz See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	3–2	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine

1.40

WLWDL

-0.43

+0.62

35%

4.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Ortiz · Sun Nov 1 vs NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	3–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo

1.00

WLWLL

-0.18

+0.78

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	4–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	at	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	3–6

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	2–3	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	1–3	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre Arana

-9

0.25

LLLD

+0.48

-0.11

7.9

D	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Ortiz · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- HEDGES · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- HEDGES

-32

0.00

LLLLL

+0.64

-0.14

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre Arana See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.