SOLAR PRE- HEDGES

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU11 · 9 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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9th

0-0-6 record · 6 played

0.00 points per game

-32 goal diff · 1–33

LLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.9

+0.64 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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SOLAR PRE- HEDGES
9th · 0.00 PPG

NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin
3rd · 2.25 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6B ↗

1% 97%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.7 for, 5.7 against · 0.05 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin
Position	9th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-6	3-0-1
Points per game	0.00	2.25
Goals for / game	0.2	3.0
Goals against / game	5.5	1.8
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	5	0
Form (recent first)	L L L L L	W W L W
Biggest win	—	6–3 at NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo
Worst loss	0–8 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black	2–3 at Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-3.30	+0.85
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.64	+0.58

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine — we 0–7; they 2–1. NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo — we 1–6; they 6–3. Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz — we 0–3; they 2–3. Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black — we 0–8; they 2–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–4 vs Sting Pre- Ortiz, 0–7 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine, 0–5 at Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez, 0–3 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz, 0–8 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Fairview Soccer Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
DKSC Pre Arana sit 8th on 0.25 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above DKSC Pre Arana on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- HEDGES – NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.00 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds
Win 0.43 PPG	8th▲ up 1	8th▲ up 1	9th— holds
Draw 0.14 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

8.9 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th 10%
9th 90%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 0.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz	3.00 (+3.00)	1st (2.63)	24 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Sting Pre- Ortiz	2.25 (+2.25)	3rd (2.02)	18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin	2.25 (+2.25)	2nd (2.14)	18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez	1.80 (+1.80)	5th (1.53)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black	1.50 (+1.50)	4th (1.63)	12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine	1.40 (+1.40)	6th (1.51)	12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo	1.00 (+1.00)	7th (0.96)	8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8	DKSC Pre Arana	0.25 (+0.25)	8th (0.58)	A point next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- HEDGES to NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

14 favour them

-6.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 8th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–5	0.05	0.01	Upside
Sat Oct 31 12:30 PM	DKSC Pre Arana 8th · 0-1-3 · GD -9	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	15%	1–2	0.61	0.08	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz

3.00

WWWWW

-0.33

+0.59

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine · Sat Nov 7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Ortiz

+10

2.25

WWWL

-0.49

+0.32

87%

3.0

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC Pre Arana · Sun Oct 25 vs NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin

2.25

WLWW

+0.58

-0.71

94%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	6–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- HEDGES · Sun Oct 25 at Sting Pre- Ortiz · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	3–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	3–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez

1.80

WLWLW

-0.50

+0.81

29%

5.1

W	Sat Oct 10	at	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	5–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin · Sat Nov 7 at Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz · Sun Nov 8 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black

1.50

LWLW

-0.34

+0.09

53%

4.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	8–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo · Sun Nov 1 at DKSC Pre Arana · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Ortiz See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	3–2	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine

1.40

WLWDL

-0.43

+0.62

36%

4.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Ortiz · Sun Nov 1 vs NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	3–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo

1.00

WLWLL

-0.18

+0.78

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	4–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	at	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	3–6

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	2–3	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	1–3	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre Arana

-9

0.25

LLLD

+0.48

-0.11

8.0

D	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Ortiz · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- HEDGES · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- HEDGES (9th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- HEDGES

-32

0.00

LLLLL

+0.64

-0.14

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (5th)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo (7th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Raine (6th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre Arana See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC Pre Arana (8th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.