Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black

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Fairview Soccer Park , Field 4B ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.0 for, 2.2 against · 1.83 expected points)

Common opponents: Dallas Texans Pre- Boaz — we 1–2; they 2–3. NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin — we 0–2; they 3–6. SOLAR PRE- HEDGES — we 8–0; they 6–1.

• Respect their attack
  NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo score 3.3/game — well above the league's 2.2.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo concede 3.3/game; worst result 0–5 at Sting Pre- Ortiz.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at NTX UNITED FC Pre- Fannin.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 55% / draw 17% / loss 28%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Away game
  Kickoff 03:30 PM at Fairview Soccer Park .

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez sit 4th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.50.

  A win moves us above Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Rodriguez on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black – NTX Celtic FC Pre- Del Olmo) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

1. 1st <1%
2. 2nd 6%
3. 3rd 16%
4. 4th 31%
5. 5th 23%
6. 6th 20%
7. 7th 4%
8. 8th 1%
9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).