FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU10 · 11 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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2nd

4-0-0 record · 4 played

3.00 points per game

+9 goal diff · 14–5

WWWWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0

+0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera
2nd · 3.00 PPG

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic
7th · 1.20 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 18 ↗

74% 13% 13%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.5 against · 2.36 expected points)

Season so far	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic
Position	2nd	7th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-0	2-0-3
Points per game	3.00	1.20
Goals for / game	3.5	2.0
Goals against / game	1.3	2.6
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W	L W L L W
Biggest win	4–1 at Alpha Forms Pre	4–0 at SOLAR PRE- KATIC
Worst loss	—	1–5 vs Sting Pre- Lucero
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.34	-0.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.11	+0.14

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West — we 5–3; they 0–3. SOLAR PRE- KATIC — we 3–1; they 4–0.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
What a win does
Sting Pre- Lucero sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.
A win moves us above Sting Pre- Lucero on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera – FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.60 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.40 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

29% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.0 average finish

1st 29%
2nd 52%
3rd 13%
4th 5%
5th <1%
6th <1%
7th <1%
8th
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Sting Pre- Lucero	3.00 (+0.00)	1st (2.74)	Win next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera to FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.53 · 9th hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -3	Home Dallas Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	3–1	2.36	2.87	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +7	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.88	2.71	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 08:00 AM	DKSC Pre- Arana Black 8th · 2-0-3 · GD -6	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	3–1	2.44	2.67	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 09:30 AM	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO 9th · 1-0-4 · GD -15	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	4–1	2.60	2.66	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sting Pre- Lucero

+29

3.00

WWWWW

-1.09

+0.12

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	10–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Alpha Forms Pre · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- JAIME · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- KATIC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	5–1	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera

3.00

WWWW

+0.11

-0.53

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	5–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	4–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC Pre- Arana Black See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	4–1	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- JAIME

+12

2.50

WWLWW

-0.32

+0.63

99%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	7–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	4–1	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia

2.00

WWWWL

-0.22

-0.15

74%

4.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- KATIC · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alpha Forms Pre

1.50

LLWLW

-0.10

+0.63

10%

5.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	3–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West

1.50

LWLWL

+0.59

-1.69

16%

5.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	3–5
W	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	2–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre- Arana Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	2–2	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	5–1	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic

-3

1.20

WLLWL

+0.14

-0.68

7.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	4–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Arana Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	4–1	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Arana Black

-6

1.20

LWLLW

+0.31

+0.41

7.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	1–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–3	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- CASTRO

-15

0.60

LLLLW

-0.19

+1.11

9.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Alpha Forms Pre · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- JAIME · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–4	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC Pre

-26

0.50

LWLLL

+0.38

-0.06

9.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (9th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	1–10
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	1–7
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (11th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	1–8

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West (6th)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	1–4	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- KATIC

-15

0.00

LLLLL

-0.02

+1.90

10.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (3rd)	2–7
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Alpha Forms Pre (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana Black (8th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic (7th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Lucero See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia (4th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (1st)	1–5	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.