Alpha Forms Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU10 · 11 teams · Forms Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:30 AM
Fairview Soccer Park , Field 4A ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.9 for, 3.4 against · 0.71 expected points)
| Season so far | Alpha Forms Pre | Sting Pre- Lucero |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-3 | 5-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 6.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W L L | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 8–1 at Kernow Storm FC Pre | 10–1 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–4 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.74 | +3.08 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.10 | -1.09 |
Common opponents: Kernow Storm FC Pre — we 8–1; they 10–1. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West — we 4–0; they 5–2.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Sting Pre- Lucero score 6.8/game — well above the league's 2.6.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Hard to break down
Sting Pre- Lucero concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs SOLAR PRE- JAIME.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 19%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
They arrive in form
Sting Pre- Lucero have won 5 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:30 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sting Pre- Lucero game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alpha Forms Pre – Sting Pre- Lucero) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.29 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.71 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.43 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.29 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 26%
- 6th 46%
- 7th 16%
- 8th 1%
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sting Pre- Lucero | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.74) | 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera | 3.00 (+1.50) | 2nd (2.66) | 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | SOLAR PRE- JAIME | 2.50 (+1.00) | 3rd (2.33) | 11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia | 2.00 (+0.50) | 4th (1.94) | 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
15 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link Alpha Forms Pre to Sting Pre- Lucero through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.63 · 4th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:30 AM |
Sting Pre- Lucero 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +29 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.71 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
SOLAR PRE- CASTRO 9th · 1-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away Fairview Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.39 | 1.51 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sting Pre- Lucero | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 5 | +29 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.09 | +0.12 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Alpha Forms Pre · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- JAIME · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- KATIC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | +0.11 | -0.53 | 100% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC Pre- Arana Black See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | SOLAR PRE- JAIME | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 15 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.32 | +0.63 | 100% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | WWWWL | -0.22 | -0.15 | 74% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- KATIC · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Alpha Forms Pre | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 9 | 1.50 | LLWLW | -0.10 | +0.63 | 10% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWL | +0.59 | -1.69 | 16% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre- Arana Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | +0.14 | -0.68 | 0% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Arana Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | DKSC Pre- Arana Black | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.31 | +0.41 | 0% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | SOLAR PRE- CASTRO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | -0.19 | +1.11 | 0% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Alpha Forms Pre · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- JAIME · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Kernow Storm FC Pre | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 34 | -26 | 3 | 0.50 | LWLLL | +0.38 | -0.06 | 0% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Springs West · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | SOLAR PRE- KATIC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.02 | +1.90 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Texans Red Pre- Garcia · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Lucero See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.